Initially shocked by the criminal war unleashed by the Kremlin against Ukraine, the Russian oligarchs, little by little, came to terms with the new reality and hope for the victory of the occupation army of the Russian Federation.
Points of attention
- Russian oligarchs and elites have come to terms with the war against Ukraine and hope for the victory of the occupation army of the Russian Federation.
- There is concern among the elites that after Ukraine, Russia's target could be Estonia or Latvia with a Russian minority, or even a NATO member.
- The war in Ukraine has united Russian elites, reducing pressure on Putin and solidifying his support within his entourage.
- Some within Putin's circle believe that the invasion of Ukraine is just one front in a larger conflict against the West, potentially leading to further aggression against NATO members.
- The war has created an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty among the Russian elite, who long for the conflict to end and return to peacetime.
Kremlin elites began to support Putin's war against Ukraine
It is noted that the vast majority of Russian oligarchs are of the opinion that the Kremlin dictator will not stop until he captures Kyiv.
The authors of the material conducted several interviews with Russian oligarchs and learned about their attitudes.
According to the newspaper's journalists, the Russian oligarchs took Putin's side because of the fear of reprisals and the realization of the futility of any resistance.
At the same time, the vast majority of the ruling Russian elite believed in the ability of the occupation army of the Russian Federation to win victory in Ukraine.
It's bad to be an outcast as a winner, but it's worse to be an outcast as a loser. We must win this war. Otherwise, they will not let us live. And, of course, Russia will fall apart, - one of the Russian oligarchs, who had previously opposed the war, said in a comment to the journalists of the publication.
At the same time, among the Russian ruling elites, there is no consensus on what can be considered a victory.
In particular, the optimistic oligarchs hope that a major breakthrough of the criminal army of the Russian Federation at the front will force Ukraine to agree to the Kremlin's terms and give up its intentions to return Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia.
At the same time, such persons expect the capture of Kharkiv, even assuming the actual destruction of the city as a result of hostilities.
Russian oligarchs consider this option the least terrible of the others.
One of the businessmen close to the Kremlin noted that Putin will not be satisfied with the capture of Kharkiv region alone.
According to him, Putin is not ready to accept anything less for the occupation of Kyiv.
It is noted that those who expect a similar scenario believe that the second attempt of the criminal army of the Russian Federation to capture the Ukrainian capital will also be carried out from the territory of Belarus, with the same route.
Many in Moscow believe that this time the Russian army is more hardened, and Ukraine's reserves are weakened, so the Russians can win. According to Russian elites, Ukrainians are simply too tired to defend themselves again.
Will Putin dare to go to war against NATO?
At the same time, the authors of the material warn that this is not yet the worst scenario.
According to the most pessimistic people in power, Ukraine is not a key goal of the Kremlin.
In fact, Putin considers it his goal to oppose Western countries.
People close to the Russian president say he sees the invasion [of Ukraine] as only one front in the conflict with the West. This means that Russia's success on the battlefield may not be enough to please Putin. In order to defeat his real enemies in Brussels and Washington, Putin may feel that he needs to attack a NATO member, the authors of the publication emphasize.
According to the most pessimistic part of the Russian elites, after Ukraine, Russia's target will be Estonia or Latvia: two Baltic countries with a large Russian minority.
A large number of Kremlin elites and oligarchs close to Putin are convinced that the West will not dare to respond to Russia's alleged aggression against the Baltic states.
They see the West as tired and divided, and therefore much less interested in fighting Russia.
They see US President Joe Biden and European leaders as weak.
In their opinion, under such a scenario, NATO will not be able to unite.
In this context, they believe that NATO will not rally to defend the attacked country.
Instead, Russian elites believe that NATO will be engulfed in so much panic and chaos that it will do little but destroy the credibility of Western governments.
According to one of the businessmen from Putin's entourage, the Kremlin dictator "loved war too much", with the help of which he managed to mobilize society, imprison some dissidents, kill others and force most of the rest to leave the country.
The war also united elites who now feel unwelcome in the West and see Putin as their only hope for a good life.
As a result, the invasion means that the pressure on Putin is less than ever before.
The idea of an endless war in Ukraine frightens the Russian elite, who still hope that the invasion will end. They dream of returning to peacetime on February 23, 2022 as soon as possible. But for now they are silent. They do not see a way back, - the journalists of the publication conclude.
