According to the team of the American Institute for the Study of War, Russia will not be able to conduct an offensive operation in the summer that will achieve at least some tactical success. This forecast is also confirmed by a Western official in an interview with the Financial Times.
The main shortcomings of the Russian army
According to the insider, the Russian army still remains ineffective with outdated equipment. The training of soldiers is not improving - it is at a very low level.
Despite this, the Russian occupiers still manage to create additional problems for the Armed Forces on the battlefield, especially when Western aid is delayed.
In addition, it is emphasized that the soldiers of the Russian Federation have long felt the lack of modern and effective equipment, and the overall combat effectiveness of enemy units is rapidly falling against the background of general degradation.
Despite everything, the Russian army has a quantitative advantage in equipment and manpower to exert constant and increasing pressure on the Armed Forces. The Kremlin is worried about how many soldiers it will have to lose in order to achieve at least some success at the front.
Russia's focus on quantity, without considering quality, supports the aggressor's tactical advantages. This summer, the Russians will use the number of personnel to achieve tactical advantages even against the already well-equipped Armed Forces, ISW predicts.
When the Armed Forces can start counteroffensive operations
According to American analysts, while the Russian army suffers from large-scale tactical errors, Ukrainian troops will be able to use this factor to their advantage.
So, in the near future, the fighters of the Armed Forces will be able to neutralize many limitations in the material base, because they will receive large-scale help from the allies.
However, Russia will continue to pursue its own advantages as the Defense Forces' capabilities improve. Ukraine will most likely stabilize the front line in the coming months and be able to launch limited counteroffensive operations in late 2024 or early 2025, ISW predicts
