Despite the fact that more and more political scientists and analysts are inclined to think that the new US President Donald Trump may abandon Ukraine, the Foreign Affairs publication considers such a scenario unlikely, because it will be a humiliation and a resounding defeat for the Republican.
Points of attention
- Ukraine's victory can strengthen the position of the United States on the world stage.
- The global rules of the game have changed, and it will be more difficult for Trump to influence the course of conflicts and wars.
- In 2024, Trump's actions may be more predictable, despite his image as a crazy politician.
A victory for Ukraine can be a victory for Trump
As distinguished professor of international politics Daniel Dresner claims, the new US president will do everything possible to strengthen the position of the US on the international arena.
However, this will be impossible if the White House refuses to support the Ukrainian people and gives Russia a chance to strengthen and conquer more territories.
Against this background, one cannot forget how Trump harshly criticized Biden for the chaotic withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in 2021.
Humiliation in Afghanistan marked the beginning of the collapse of American authority and respect around the world, the Republican leader said at the time.
However, according to the professor, a similar outcome in Russia's war against Ukraine would create similar political problems for Donald Trump, which he certainly does not want to have.
Don't expect crazy decisions from Trump
As Daniel Drezner pointed out, the situation in the international arena is currently such that it will be more difficult for Trump to lead the United States out of these conflicts than he claimed during the election campaign.
The global rules of the game have changed since 2017. Many countries began to gain independence from the US, including the BRICS+, OPEC+ and Shanghai Cooperation Organization structures, the professor emphasized.
The expert also draws attention to the fact that Trump is returning to the White House as a well-known figure on the world stage.
According to Columbia University professor Elizabeth Saunders, in 2024 Trump's actions are "much easier to predict" because he only pretends to be "crazy", but in the end he has become a fairly predictable politician.
