In recent weeks, Russia began striking Ukrainian airfields, fearing the arrival of F-16 fighter jets.
Points of attention
- Russian long-range aviation has changed the focus of strikes on Ukrainian air bases due to fear of the possible use of F-16 fighters.
- Ukrainian attacks on facilities in Crimea led to the destruction of critical elements of the S-300 and S-400 complexes, which encourages Russia to protect its assets.
- The arrival of F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine in the summer will create new opportunities to protect Kharkiv from Russian strikes.
- The Netherlands and Denmark allowed the use of F-16s against Russian aircraft even in the airspace of the Russian Federation, expanding the defense capabilities of Ukraine.
What is the new tactic of Russian missile strikes on Ukraine
As noted in the summary, throughout June 2024, the Russian Air Force continued to pressure the front line in Ukraine with tactical aircraft, while kamikaze drones continued to strike deeper-seated infrastructure and military facilities.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine — 20 June 2024.
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However, between June 12 and 18, Russian long-range aircraft shifted the focus of their cruise missile strikes to Ukrainian air bases, almost certainly due to Ukrainian air defense successes, but also likely highlighting Russian concerns about the future use of F-16 fighter jets.
According to British intelligence, a series of coordinated Ukrainian attacks on facilities in Crimea led to the destruction of critical elements of Russian surface-to-air missile systems S-300 and S-400. These successes underscore Russia's attempt to protect its assets in Crimea, despite the significant economic costs of air defense.
Ukraine's subsequent successful attacks on Russian airfields such as Mozdok, Aktyubinsk, and most recently, Morozovsk have likely forced Russia to continue its policy of dispersing air bases further from the front line.
This will almost certainly lead to increased aircraft and crew fatigue as the flight time increases. Perhaps the accidental loss of a Su-34 fighter-bomber in North Ossetia in southern Russia on June 12 is related to this, the British Ministry of Defence notes.
Arrival of F-16 in Ukraine
The first F-16 aircraft will arrive in Ukraine in the summer.
According to The Guardian, the fighter jets will protect Kharkiv from Russian strikes, as Russia has made extensive use of anti-aircraft missiles, launching bombs from aircraft that remain in Russian airspace.
The Netherlands and Denmark have allowed Ukraine to use F-16s against Russian aircraft, even if they are in Russian airspace.
