Over the past almost three years of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war, for the first time the initiative has shifted in favor of Ukraine.
Points of attention
- Ukraine has seized the initiative in the war against Russia for the first time in almost three years.
- Russian troops suffered a net loss of territory in April 2024, marking a significant shift in the conflict.
Ukraine seized the initiative in the war against Russia
For the first time in nearly three years, the initiative in the war appears to have shifted in Ukraine's favor. Having survived a harsh winter in which its cities and power grid were subjected to massive shelling by Russian drones and missiles almost nightly, Ukraine is now turning the tables. It is imposing ever-increasing costs on Russia by almost every measure.
It is noted that Russia's expected spring offensive not only failed, but in April, Russian troops suffered a net loss of territory for the first time since August 2024.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) recently listed factors that contributed to Ukraine’s successes: ground counterattacks and medium-range strikes by Ukrainian forces; the cessation of Russia’s illegal use of Starlink terminals in Ukraine; and the Kremlin’s paranoid restriction of the Telegram messenger in Russia.
According to the publication's calculations, based on ISW maps, Russia has lost control over 113 square kilometers in the last 30 days.
In addition, the losses of Russian soldiers, which currently reach 35,000 per month, exceed the rate at which Russia can recruit people for the war.
Also, away from the front line, Russia is suffering increasing losses from Ukrainian medium-range drones (with a flight range of 50 to 300 km).
Adding to Russian failures on the battlefield is the increase in the scale, range, and intensity of Ukrainian strikes deep into Russian territory.
In March, Ukraine surpassed Russia for the first time in the number of long-range drone attacks. In Russia, economic and military targets almost 2,000 km from the Ukrainian border are regularly hit.
