The Armed Forces of Ukraine are forming several assault brigades, but the late and insufficient supply of Western weapons, most likely, will not allow them to be staffed at a sufficient level.
Points of attention
- The lack of Western weapons slows down the process of staffing new assault brigades of the Armed Forces.
- The Defence forces of Ukraine need heavy equipment: combat vehicles, tanks, and artillery.
- The slow arrival of American aid complicates the country's efforts to equip the brigades.
- The importance of the supply of weapons determines the success of the defence operations of the Armed Forces.
- Ukraine's need for weapons may affect Russia's willingness to wage a protracted war.
Ukraine is forming several new brigades but cannot arm them
It is noted that timely and adequate Western security assistance remains a critical factor in determining when and to what extent the Defense Forces will be able to seize the initiative on the battlefield and conduct operational counteroffensive operations in the future.
ISW referred to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's interview with the Bloomberg agency, in which he stated that for a counteroffensive, at least 10 newly created brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine need heavy equipment — mechanised combat vehicles, armored personnel carriers, tanks and heavy artillery. And the commander of one of the brigades currently in the Chasiv Yar area noted that the Ukrainian forces need ammunition rather than manpower.
The report also cited Zelenskyy's statement that military equipment takes too long to arrive at the front.
He thus reiterated his comments from early June 2024 that the slow arrival of American security assistance was complicating Ukraine's efforts to equip reserve brigades sufficiently to engage them in defence operations.
In recent months, the Ukrainian media has regularly emphasised the lack of sufficient material resources to equip all the new Ukrainian brigades currently being formed, and current reports suggest that Ukraine will not be able to fully staff all of its future brigades without additional Western security assistance. The months-long delay in Western aid has exacerbated challenges to the country's mobilisation efforts, the report said.
What is known about Putin's protracted war strategy
ISW previously stated that Putin expects to defeat Ukraine if he prolongs hostilities indefinitely.
At the same time, Western partners can weaken Russia's desire to wage a protracted war if they provide Ukraine with enough weapons and aid.
In the meantime, the Kremlin can use the current pressure on Toretsk to advance in the Chasiv Yar or Avdiivka areas.
