The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) concluded that it is extremely important for the Armed Forces to seize the initiative on the battlefield as soon as possible because now all the necessary conditions are in place for this, and in 2025, it will be much more difficult.
When can the new AFU offensive begin?
The American authorities are increasingly inclined to the opinion that Ukrainian soldiers can resort to serious counteroffensive operations as early as 2025.
For example, recently the US President's national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine intend to conduct a counter-offensive operation to return Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia next year.
According to him, this can happen only after US military aid helps the defenders stop the Russian army's advance at the front.
Sullivan also warned the Ukrainians that American aid would not "instantly flip a switch" in the situation on the battlefield.
US military aid will allow Ukrainian forces to hold the front line and resist Russian attacks for the rest of 2024.
Jake Sullivan
Adviser to the US President on national security issues
ISW advises the Ukrainian Armed Forces not to sit on the defensive
According to U.S. analysts, it may well take several more weeks for Western weapons and ammunition to reach Ukrainian forward units and begin to have a tangible impact on the battlefield.
They are also convinced that the arrival of US military aid to Ukraine will enable the soldiers of the Armed Forces to stabilise the front line and seize the initiative.
Ukraine's ability to liberate its territory and conduct counteroffensive operations depends on a number of unresolved decisions in the West, Russia and Ukraine, and any external attempts to impose a time frame for Ukrainian counteroffensive operations ignore the real situation on the battlefield, the ISW team emphasises.
