ISW analysts note that the Ukrainian troops are most likely trying to reduce the Russian air defense capabilities ahead of the delivery of F-16 fighter jets.
Points of attention
- The analysis shows that the destruction of S-300 and S-400 batteries in Crimea and the Belgorod region, as well as damage to Su-57 aircraft, may indicate attempts by Ukraine to influence the air defense of the Russian Federation.
- The plans of the Armed Forces can create prerequisites for more effective use of manned aviation and support of ground operations, but three conditions must be met.
- Ukraine is expected to receive the first F-16s from Western partners already this summer, but the results of using the new equipment will require time and careful preparation.
AFU tries to weaken Russia's air defence on the eve of F-16 deliveries
As analysts note, the destruction of S-300 and S-400 batteries in Crimea and the Belgorod region, and the damage by drones to two Su-57 aircraft at the Akhtubinsk airfield, are evidence of Ukraine's possible attempts to weaken Russian air defence.
The S-300/S-400 air defense systems and Su-57 fighters are important means of Russian air defense and aviation, which deprive Ukraine of the ability to use aircraft near the front line and support Russian offensive operations in Ukraine, the analysts added.
The report says that if the U.S. military weakens Russian air defense before Ukraine receives a significant number of aircraft, the military can create the conditions for future use of manned aircraft closer to the frontline areas.
Over time, the Ukrainian army will be able to move to a concept of operations that combines aviation with support for ground operations, but under three conditions:
if the Ukrainian military receives a sufficient number of fighter jets;
Western partners will train a sufficient number of qualified pilots;
if Ukraine manages to weaken Russian air defenсes.
At the same time, analysts report that, according to Western officials, Ukraine will continue to face material and training limitations, probably preventing it from using aviation on a large scale in 2024.
Ukrainian and Western officials have previously indicated that it will take a significant amount of time to properly train a sufficient number of Ukrainian pilots and equip the Armed Forces of Ukraine with at least 150 F-16s necessary to achieve the air superiority needed to support ground operations, ISW added.
What is known about the timing of Ukraine's receipt of the first F-16s from Western partners
I expect that from the summer of this year the first F-16 will be delivered to Ukraine, and from then on the supply of these combat aircraft will be put "on stream". There will be more and more planes, and this will strengthen your Air Force, said the head of the Ministry of Defense of the Netherlands.
According to her, Denmark will first hand over the F-16 to Ukraine and then, a little later, the Netherlands.
Ollongren noted that Western fighters will not help Ukraine reverse the course of the criminal war unleashed by Russia but will significantly strengthen the capabilities of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
These fighters will arrive gradually. Combat use will show their effectiveness. It will significantly strengthen the Air Force and at some point it can lead to your air superiority. But that can't happen as soon as you get the first F-16s. Therefore, if someone expects an immediate effect, then I advise you to be more realistic, — emphasised Dutch MoD chief.
