Russia is preparing to attack Kharkiv and Sumy regions in late May or early June. However, the Russians do not have enough forces to capture Kharkiv or Sumy, reports the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU).
Is a Russian offensive on Kharkiv and Sumy possible?
Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, notes that the timing of the offensive depends on the strength of Ukrainian defences in Donbas, but suggests that Russia's main push will begin "in late May or early June".
Skibitskyi also says that Russia has a total of 514,000 ground troops involved in the Ukrainian operation, which is higher than the 470,000 estimate given last month by NATO's top commander, General Christopher Cavoli.
According to the deputy chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, the Russian northern grouping, based on the border with Kharkiv, currently has 35,000 troops, but the occupiers intend to increase it to 50,000-70,000. Russia is also "generating a reserve division" (i.e. 15,000 to 20,000 troops) in central Russia, which it can add to the main effort.
Skibitskyi believes that this is not enough for an operation to capture a large city, but could be sufficient for a smaller task.
A quick operation to get in and out is possible. But an operation to take Kharkiv or even the city of Sumy is of a different order. The Russians know this. And we know it.
Vadim Skibitskyi
Deputy Head of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
Russians have a plan to capture Kharkiv and Sumy
Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk, Commander of the Land Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, confirmed that Russia has a plan to capture Kharkiv and Sumy, but Ukrainian troops do not know how serious these plans are.
Our intelligence services say that the Russians do have a plan to capture Kharkiv and Sumy, but we do not know how serious these plans are and whether they are able to implement them with the forces they have at their disposal, said Pavlyuk.
Pavlyuk said that Russia's main goal remains the destruction of Ukraine as a nation. According to him, the Russians are planning to capture not only Donetsk and Luhansk regions, but also Zaporizhzhia region.
But since we have not given them such an opportunity since 2022, we believe that the goals that the Russians have set for themselves this year are the complete occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk regions and, if they succeed, Zaporizhzhia region, the Land Forces commander said.
