Russian troops are unlikely to be able to achieve a deeper, operationally significant advance in the Avdiivka area, despite the withdrawal of the Defence Forces from some positions.
The situation in the Avdiivka direction
Analysts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that recent Russian advances northwest of Avdiivka have prompted Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other limited tactical positions along the front line west of Avdiivka. However, these withdrawals have not yet contributed to rapid Russian tactical gains.
Russian forces are unlikely to achieve deeper operational penetration in this area in the near future.
The report noted that Russian forces did not make relatively quick tactical gains west of Ocheretyno, Solovyove (northwest of Avdiyivka), Berdychi, and Semenivka after the Ukrainians withdrew from limited tactical positions.
However, this indicates that Ukrainian forces maintain positions and capabilities in the area, which slow down Russia's further westward advance for the time being.
Analysts suggest that Russian forces will likely continue to make tactical gains in the direction of Avdiivka in the coming weeks.
Currently, the Russian command has a choice: continue to advance west to Pokrovsk or try to move north to conduct additional offensive operations around Chasiv Yar.
Will Russia attack Kharkiv?
AFU Commander-in-Chief, Col. Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, also noted that the threat of a possible future offensive operation by Russia against Kharkiv forces Ukraine to allocate additional forces and means to protect the city.
According to ISW, the Russian military lacks the forces necessary to capture the city.
It appears that the Russian military is learning from past operational planning mistakes and may intend to stretch Ukrainian forces across a wider front line in eastern Ukraine before the start of Russia's summer offensive on Kharkiv.
