American analysts concluded that the Russian invaders would not be able to conduct large-scale mechanized maneuvers near Kupyansk, despite all their minor tactical successes.
What is happening near Kupiansk
The ISW team draws attention to the fact that the Russian army achieved tactical success southeast of Kupyansk along the critically important route P07 Kupiansk-Svatove near Krokhmalne.
The Russian invaders may intensify their attacks to the northwest and west of Krokhmalny in the direction of the Oskil River.
Russian forces are likely to be able to gain some tactical advantages in the Kupyansk area, but are unlikely to be able to translate them into the wider mechanised maneuvers necessary for an operationally significant advance capable of capturing more territory in Kharkiv region and advancing to the administrative borders of Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
The report also states that the expected Russian offensive operation in the winter-spring of 2024 continues in the border zone of the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions.
ISW confirmed Budanov's forecast regarding the development of the situation at the front
Recently, the chief of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU), Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, reported that the offensive of the Russian army is still ongoing, and the Russian invaders aim to reach the Zherebets River (on the border of Kharkiv and Luhansk regions) and the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
According to the DIU chief, the occupiers cannot achieve these goals. However, they will probably be "completely exhausted" by the beginning of spring.
Analysts note that Budanov's statements are consistent with ISW observations that Russian forces have intensified offensive operations along this route since early January 2024.
