Joe Biden's administration decided to allow Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles to strike targets in the Russian Federation. At the same time, according to US intelligence, the risk of nuclear escalation remains low.
Points of attention
- US intelligence believes that the risk of nuclear escalation after allowing Ukraine to strike targets in the Russian Federation remains low.
- Russia may activate hybrid methods of warfare, such as sabotage and cyberattacks, in response to Western actions.
- Attempts to use nuclear weapons are seen as a last resort by Russia due to the lack of a clear military advantage.
- Putin mostly uses verbal threats, ignoring the facts of Ukraine's attacks on the occupied territories.
- The international community should monitor the development of the situation more closely and prepare for possible escalation scenarios.
Putin's nuclear threats are a bluff
As noted, Russia is likely to increase hybrid methods of warfare, such as sabotage and cyber attacks, to pressure the West.
Despite Vladimir Putin's rhetoric and changes in Russia's nuclear doctrine, Moscow is reluctant to use nuclear weapons, according to U.S. intelligence, because it lacks a clear military advantage. The nuclear option is seen as an extreme step, which may be preceded by other forms of aggression, such as attacks on critical infrastructure, the intelligence says.
Russia is likely to intensify sabotage operations in Europe and cyber attacks to intimidate countries that support Ukraine.
In addition, Washington is concerned about possible attacks on US military bases or other strategic objects. At the same time, it is mentioned that there is an extensive network of agents in Russia that can be involved in such operations.
An additional factor that influenced the decision to authorize long-range strikes was the presence of North Korean troops sent to Russia. This became a signal to the US that Moscow is attracting additional resources, demanding appropriate actions.
Putin cannot back up his threats with actions
The American Institute for the Study of War points out that the Russian dictator's statement on November 21 demonstrates that the Kremlin's rhetoric regarding escalation remains largely at the level of verbal threats.
As you know, Moscow's latest threats were aimed at those allies of Kyiv who allowed Ukraine to launch long-range strikes on "Russian territory".
Despite this, for some reason, Vladimir Putin continues to ignore the fact that the Ukrainian Defense Forces have been striking the occupied territories, which the Kremlin illegally declares to be part of Russia, for years.
It is important to understand that, first of all, we are talking about Crimea, which was occupied by the aggressor country 10 years ago.
Moreover, it is no secret that Ukraine regularly attacks Crimea with American ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles, starting from April 2023.
However, this fact does not worry the Russian dictator too much, who only threatens retaliation, but in fact does not react to it in any way.
