US Vice President Kamala Harris is ahead of former President Donald Trump in five of seven key states in the presidential race.
Points of attention
- Kamala Harris is ahead of Donald Trump in five out of seven key states according to the latest polling data, with a 1-point gap between them.
- The increase in Democratic voter activity and the significance of voter turnout could sway the results of the election.
- Harris's lead over Trump has implications for swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
- The competitive nature of the race is evident in details such as Harris reducing Trump's lead in Nevada and leading in North Carolina after overcoming a significant deficit.
- Election dynamics are influenced by factors such as financial well-being, immigration policies, and the commitment of voters to turn out, reflecting the importance of every vote in the upcoming presidential election.
Harris is ahead of Trump
This is stated in the Cook Political Report Swing State Project survey.
According to the poll results in key states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), Harris leads Trump by 1 point.
48% of voters are ready to vote for her, compared to 47% for Trump. Another 5% of voters are undecided.
Overall, Harris is slightly ahead of Trump in five of seven key states. In turn, the former US president is ahead of Harris only in Nevada, but since the previous poll in May, she has reduced her lead by six points in that state.
In the state of Georgia, both presidential candidates have the same percentage of support (48% each).
It is noted that Harris leads Trump by 2 points in Arizona, where Trump previously led Biden by 1 point.
She also leads Trump in North Carolina, overcoming Trump's 7-point lead in the state in May, and trails him by 1 point in Pennsylvania, where Trump previously led Biden by 3 points.
The US presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 5.
Harris strengthened her position in the confrontation with Trump
As noted, Harris has a 1-point lead nationally — something that President Biden, who trailed by 5 points when he exited the race, never had.
At the same time, Trump maintains a strong lead among voters who say they will be better off financially with him and that his policies will reduce the number of migrants at the border.
It is also noted that the percentage of Democrats who say they will "definitely vote" has increased to the highest level this year. This narrows the party's "view gap" that has been observed throughout the campaign.
More generally, all this indicates that elections may well depend on voter turnout, and especially on marginal turnout—those who don't always come to the polls. In particular, among those who generally describe themselves as voting "sometimes" or "rarely" but say they will definitely vote now, Harris is currently winning.
