Director of the Center for Near Eastern Studies Igor Semivolos analyzed in detail the developments in the Middle East. He drew attention to the fact that the US and Israel are carrying out a second wave of air strikes on air defense facilities, ballistic missile bases, and IRGC control centers, which means that the war is gaining momentum.
Points of attention
- Ukraine favors scenarios leading to internal destabilization of the Iranian government and a quick end to the war, supporting potential regime overthrow for strategic reasons.
- The analysis highlights the importance of monitoring the developments in the Middle East for Ukraine's interests and potential geopolitical advantages.
Ukraine is counting on the fall of the Iranian regime
As the expert notes, on February 28, we received the first positive news from the Middle East.
First of all, the US and Israel were able to eliminate Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei with their strikes.
Moreover, the death of IRGC ground forces commander Mohammad Pakpour and advisor Ali Shamkhani is reported.
The Iranians have struck Israel and the Gulf states. Most of the missiles and drones have been intercepted, but there have also been hits in Israel (Tel Aviv, Ramat Gan and Bnei Brak), the UAE (Abu Dhabi, Dubai) and Qatar (Doha). The US 5th Fleet base in Bahrain was hit — the fleet itself was withdrawn to sea and was not damaged. The Gulf states have officially condemned Iran's aggression and declared the right to respond.
Igor Semivolos
Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies
As for the situation in Iran, formally, power has passed to the Provisional Governing Council (President Pezeshkian, the head of the judiciary, and a representative of the Guardian Council).
However, what is important to understand is that the IRGC acts autonomously, promising "the most severe retaliation."
As of today, there are no signs of open rebellion in the army, but control is decentralized.
Many experts believe that the next 24 hours will be critical for the survival of the Iranian regime.
If people take to the streets en masse in the evening and do not meet with resistance from the IRGC, a domino effect will begin. Especially since there are 7 days of weekend ahead. I assume they are actively working with part of the current political elite, — emphasizes Semivolos.
According to him, the probability of the Strait of Hormuz being completely unblocked by Monday morning is currently assessed as low.
Regarding Ukraine. We are in favor of any scenario that leads to the internal destabilization of the Islamist government in Iran, for obvious reasons that have been repeatedly voiced by Ukrainian leaders. It is also critically important to us that the war ends as quickly as possible, preferably with the overthrow of the regime.
Igor Semivolos
Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies
