As noted in the article by CNN journalists, this week President Volodymyr Zelensky for the first time hinted at the possibility of negotiations with the aggressor country Russia to end the criminal war unleashed by the Kremlin.
Points of attention
- President Zelensky hinted at negotiations with Russia to end the war, evaluated by Western analysts in the context of US elections.
- Ukraine faces challenges at the front and uncertainty of support, emphasizing NATO membership for security.
- Success of Ukrainian military depends on Western partners' support and potential reactions from the US administration post-election.
- Ukraine's ability to win the war against Russia under Trump's presidency hinges on exhausting enemy forces and maintaining Western aid.
- Possible outcomes for Ukraine include stable peace with full US support, ensuring security as a NATO member, and potential US aid continuity under Democratic win.
On what terms will Ukraine conduct negotiations with the Russian Federation in the event of Trump's victory in the US elections
The authors of the material note that the leadership of Ukraine is currently facing challenges in the form of a difficult situation at the front and the uncertainty of partners regarding further support.
According to the former US Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, the change in Zelenskyi's rhetoric is probably related to the political events in the US against the background of the elections.
The former American diplomat emphasized that Zelensky is trying to establish contact with the likely presidential administration of Trump in the event of his victory in the elections.
Now it is politically difficult to claim that peace can be achieved without the full return of all Ukrainian territories. But this does not mean that it is impossible, said Herbst.
In his opinion, Ukraine will be the winner in the criminal war unleashed by the Kremlin, even if Kyiv fails to return all the territories occupied by Russia.
But in order to be a safe state, especially under such circumstances, it must be a member of NATO. If it was really on the negotiating table, that is, with the full faith and strength of the US, it could theoretically lead to a stable peace, the former diplomat added.
At the same time, as the director of Chatham House's "Russia and Eurasia" program, Orysia Lutsevich, notes, Zelensky's words were probably a message to the world.
This is at the same time a signal for the Russian Federation and the global South that Ukraine is not an impeding force. He is ready to sit down at the negotiating table. But this cannot happen entirely on Russian terms, and it cannot lead to the capitulation of Ukraine, - emphasizes the analyst.
The authors of the material emphasize that Ukraine is currently on the defensive and is unable to return the territories captured by Russia.
The Armed Forces will have to accumulate equipment, materials and manpower for the future counteroffensive operation, and this is part of the Russian calculations that we see - the Russian military command is following the strategy of conducting offensive operations along the entire front line, - explains the analyst on Russia at the American Institute for the Study of War Riley Bailey.
According to Bailey, by carrying out a gradual offensive along the 1,000 km long front line, Russia is forcing Ukraine to switch to defensive operations instead of preparing for a counteroffensive.
How Ukraine can win the war in the conditions of the probable presidency of Trump in the USA
The Armed Forces will have to exhaust enemy forces and capabilities involved in offensive operations, which will add greater flexibility and relieve some of the pressure. Then Ukraine will be able to start making some operational decisions that it could not make in the last few months, - believes Bailey.
The authors of the material emphasize that any success of the Ukrainian military at the front will depend on the support provided by Western partners.
However, Herbst predicts that if the Democrats win the US presidential election, the current policy of supporting Ukraine will continue and more aid will flow.
If Trump wins, we don't know what he will do. But we know that there are serious people in his national security team who will understand that Putin poses a direct threat to American interests, and that it is important or critical for the United States that Putin loses in Ukraine, the diplomat emphasized.
But Herbst said there is another factor that could convince a possible Trump administration to continue helping Ukraine.
If his team cuts aid and Ukraine falls, it will be a major defeat for the US, thanks to Trump. And this defeat will overshadow the damage done by Biden with his withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. And in his team there will be people who will understand it, - emphasized Herbst.
