Politico journalists warn that Russia may attempt to seize at least part of Estonia, and the border city of Narva could be the very place from which World War III begins.
Points of attention
- Politico journalists warn that Narva, Estonia, could be the epicenter of a potential Russian invasion, leading to the start of World War III.
- The high concentration of ethnic Russians in Estonia poses a threat of potential intervention by Russia, raising concerns about hybrid warfare attempts and provocations in the region.
- The lack of a strong NATO response to a potential Russian invasion of Estonia could undermine collective defense agreements like Article 5, with significant global implications.
- Estonia's strategic location and significant Russian-speaking population make it a key target for Russian aggression, highlighting the challenges faced by NATO forces stationed in the Baltics.
- NATO's readiness for conflict in the Baltics varies, with some countries implementing defensive measures, while Estonia aims to strengthen its border control amidst ongoing threats of invasion.
Could Russia attempt to seize Estonia?
As the publication notes, the city of Narva is sandwiched along the border between Russia and Estonia. It is at the epicenter of countering hybrid warfare attempts by the aggressor country.
Here, attempts by Russia to jam GPS signals, the theft of border demarcation buoys, the spread of Russian propaganda, and a large number of spy drones are recorded.
"We have no intention of starting World War III, but we see constant attempts to provoke us into doing something that would have a greater impact," explains the situation to Egert Belitsev, Director General of the Estonian Police and Border Guard Board.
The authors of the material emphasize that the Kremlin may again use the pretext of the alleged need to protect the Russian-speaking population of the Estonian city for an invasion.
And then force NATO to start a global war in response. The lack of a reaction will show that NATO's Article 5 on collective defense is meaningless, the authors of the material suggest one possible scenario.
Why is the threat of a Russian army invasion greater for Estonia than for the other Baltic countries?
According to the publication's reporter Joshua Posaner, ethnic Russians make up 1.4 million of Estonia's population, which is about a quarter of the country's total population.
Narva is the third largest city in Estonia, located closer to St. Petersburg than to Tallinn.
Of the city's approximately 56,000 residents, 96% speak Russian, and a third have a Russian passport.
According to Egert Belitsev, Western partners are not really ready for the scenarios that Russia may resort to.
Around 900 British soldiers are stationed in the country as part of a multinational NATO force at Tapa Air Base west of Tallinn; France also has troops there. The British government has pledged to keep its 4th Brigade Combat Team on standby for rapid deployment.
NATO has established battle groups in most of its eastern member states and plans to expand these groups in Latvia and Lithuania.
In Estonia, NATO has not made such commitments due to the shortage of the British Army, which has only two armored brigades at its disposal.
If Russia were to strike, it is unlikely that the NATO force in Tapa, augmented by 7,700 Estonian troops (whose number could be increased to 43,000 in the event of war), would have enough firepower to repel an attack, explains Joshua Posaner.
Belichev added that Estonia's plan is to cover every meter of Estonia's 338-kilometer border with Russia with surveillance equipment. But that's easier said than done.
