In February 2026, a window will open for a real opportunity to reach an agreement to end the war in Ukraine. This will be an optimal period for both Ukraine and Russia. This was stated by the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov.
Points of attention
- Kyrylo Budanov predicts a window of opportunity for Ukraine and Russia to reach a peace agreement in February 2026, marking a crucial period for ending the war.
- Russia's economic challenges, with 46% of expenditures allocated to the defense budget, are influencing its position on the conflict resolution, potentially facilitating negotiations.
- The forecasted optimal time for a peace agreement is linked to military activities, economic constraints, and other factors favorable for both countries.
Budanov announced that February 2026 will be fateful for the end of the war
Budanov was reminded that in a previous interview he also said that the optimal time for a peace agreement would be February 2026. Journalists asked why February would be such a "window."
According to calculations, this is the most favorable period for both Russia and Ukraine to achieve something. This is connected with military activity, and with the heating season, and so on. A lot of things. I'm just giving you a conclusion.
Kirill Budanov
Head of the GUR
At the same time, he emphasized that the Russian budget for 2026 already looks catastrophic. Almost half of the spending there is earmarked for "defense needs", other programs have been severely reduced.
Therefore, they have already made quite unpopular and difficult decisions. Very painful for them. This is another explanation for you regarding the negotiation process. The defense budget for 2026 now — in total, because there are expenditures for defense, there are for, as we say, security forces — 46%. Any country cannot develop, move somewhere normally, when it spends 46% on war. This is impossible.
Budanov added that Russia's economic difficulties will not directly affect the situation on the battlefield, but they will affect Russia's position on ending the war. At the current pace, Russia's economic collapse, as such, is a long, very long time away.
But is Russia ready to wait that long? That's another question. The problems are already there, and they are significant.
