Pavlo Lakiychuk, head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI", noted that the operation in the Kursk region continues in information silence. However, he made assumptions about two reasons that launched the new offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Points of attention
- Probable reasons for the start of the counteroffensive in Kurshchyna include a provocation by the Russian Federation and a preemptive counterattack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
- The operation in Kurshchyna continues in informational silence, making it challenging to determine the exact goals and tasks associated with it.
- The escalation in Kurshchyna could be linked to the aftermath of Russian operations in other regions, leading to strategic moves by both sides.
- There are speculations about a potential Russian provocation to create a 'sanitary border' in the Sumy region, prompting a swift response from the Defense Forces.
- The introduction of a state of emergency and various reports of military activities indicate a tense situation in the Kursk region, requiring careful analysis and monitoring.
The operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kurshchyna could begin for two reasons — Lakiychuk
The expert named two of his assumptions regarding the probable reasons for the start of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces in the Kursk region.
The operation continues in informational silence. We can only guess, but we do not know the exact goal and task of this operation. We even estimate the direction of the strikes based on the enemy's data, but we can speculate about the reasons for these events.
Pavlo Lakiychuk
Military expert
The head of security programs of the Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI" recalled that after the start of the Russian operation in the Kharkiv region in May of this year, the head of the DIU of the Ministry of Defense, General Budanov, warned that the enemy was concentrating forces on another part of the front, in particular on another part of the border, that is, in the direction of Sumy. It was then that the name of the settlement of Suja was first mentioned in the context of the war.
That is, two assumptions can be made. Perhaps there was a provocation on the part of the Russian Federation with the aim of creating a so-called sanitary border in the Sumy region, which received a quick and severe rebuff from the prepared units of the Defense Forces, which went on the offensive. Or a more daring assumption — it was a pre-emptive counterattack to disorganize enemy groups preparing to attack and disrupt their plans. As it turns out, compounds that are preparing for the offensive are often not ready for defense.
Counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region: what is known
On August 6, the authorities of the Kursk region of the Russian Federation announced that the Armed Forces allegedly tried to break through the Russian border, but apparently managed to prevent this. Later, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that "the Ukrainian DRG retreated to its territory."
On August 7, the Institute for the Study of War noted that the Russian Ministry of Defense, the acting governor of Kursk Oblast, Oleksiy Smirnov, and some propagandists have different versions of the events in Kursk Oblast.
On August 7, the illegitimate president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, gathered the military leadership of the Russian Federation over the situation in the Kursk region, which he called a "large-scale provocation." The Generalitat falsely assured the dictator that the attack had been repulsed.
At that time, the spokeswoman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Maria Zakharova, called on the international community to "resolutely condemn the criminal attacks of the Kyiv regime on Russian territory."
On the same day, the Russian mass media reported that employees of the Kursk nuclear power plant fear that the management of the nuclear power plant was not prepared in case of a possible attack by the armed forces.
Also, the Russians in the Kursk region began to create detachments of UAV operators from civilians. Up to 10 hours are given for training.
A state of emergency has been introduced in the Kursk region since August 7.
