US President Donald Trump has not imposed tariffs on aggressor Russia, but his trade war with other countries has already begun to destabilize the Russian economy. If it continues like this, dictator Vladimir Putin will have a lot of serious problems.
Points of attention
- US President Donald Trump's trade war indirectly affects Russia's economy by destabilizing oil prices, a crucial revenue source for the country.
- Falling oil prices, coupled with the ongoing trade war, could lead to a minimal GDP growth rate of only 0.1% for Russia, significantly impacting its economy.
Russia could not avoid the consequences of Trump's trade war
Analysts point out that oil and gas account for about a third of the Russian state budget revenues.
What is important to understand is that this is also the main engine of the Kremlin's economy and its extremely vulnerable point.
Elina Rybakova, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, made a forecast on this matter.
If the price of oil continues to fall, they (Russians — ed.) will feel disadvantaged — they are already starting to feel it — if this continues, they will find themselves in a "guns against oil" situation, she emphasized.
According to JP Morgan analysts, the “tsunami” provoked by Donald Trump is unlikely to leave Russia unscathed.
Foreign experts also add that oil prices must remain low for long enough to have a real impact on Putin's military plans.
If the price of Urals oil averages $50 this year, GDP growth will be 0.1% — this will be a shock to the Russian economy.
