According to Bloomberg analysts, among the countries with the 20 largest economies in the world, the highest probability of civil unrest in 2025 is in Turkey, Russia and the United States.
Points of attention
- Turkey, Russia, and the USA are identified as G-20 countries with the highest probability of public protests in 2025.
- Risk analysis is based on events leading to protests and internal conflicts, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding potential upheavals.
- The US faces a lower risk of public protests compared to Turkey and Russia, with a probability of 2.9% in 2025.
- Analysts also point out potential risks of protests in Brazil, China, India, and Saudi Arabia, while Japan sees the lowest risk of destabilization among G-20 nations.
- Factors like the collapse of democratic institutions and factional grievances contribute to the increased risk of internal conflict in the USA.
What is known about the risks of unrest in Russia, Turkey and the USA in 2025
It is noted that according to calculations, the probability of public protests in the USA in 2025 is only 2.9%, one country is the third among the 20 largest economies in the world, second only to Turkey and Russia in the level of risk of destabilization.
In particular, in Germany, Canada and Australia, the risk of public protests and riots is half as low as in the USA.
The analysis builds on an approach developed by the US government's Political Instability Task Force to assess the risk of domestic destabilization.
Specifically, the purpose of the calculation is to identify the factors that fueled fears of public protests in the years following the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.
It is noted that the risk of internal conflict in the USA is significantly increased by the collapse of democratic institutions and the growth of factional grievances.
Forecasts for rare events, such as internal conflict, are accompanied by a high degree of uncertainty. Still, we think the model is a useful way to create an analytical framework for investigating the rise in risks in the US — and the results are far from reassuring, explains Bloomberg Economics analyst Nick Hallmark.
What is known about the risk of possible destabilization in other G-20 countries
In particular, the probability of internal protests in Russia is estimated by analysts at 4%.
At the same time, the probability of protests in Turkey is estimated at 6%.
Brazil, China, India and Saudi Arabia follow.
Analysts see the lowest level of risk of destabilization of the situation in Japan.
