The Russian command resorts to periodic impulsive mechanized attacks, which end with large-scale losses for the occupiers. As the ISW team points out, this is due to the lack of potential for a large-scale offensive in Ukraine.
Points of attention
- Russian forces lack a broader operational potential to conduct a new major offensive operation.
- Impulsive mechanized attacks of the Russian army indicate a shortage of personnel and resources.
- The habit of the Russian military command to achieve local successes at the expense of large-scale losses will become more and more expensive.
- The Russian army is actively using up limited stocks of Soviet-era weapons and equipment, which may lead to the depletion of these resources.
The Russian army is losing more and more personnel and weapons
American analysts draw attention to the fact that the soldiers of the Russian Federation managed to carry out 5 mechanized attacks with forces from a platoon to a battalion in the west of the Donetsk region only during the last two days.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, such local mechanized offensives are quite possibly part of the projected Russian summer offensive.
However, as of today, the Russian invaders lack the broader operational capacity to launch a separate renewed offensive operation in Donetsk region or elsewhere on the front this summer.
ISW estimates that Russian troops are likely trying to capture Kostyantynivka and cut the T-0524 Vugledar-Kostyantynivka route, forcing the Ukrainian military to retreat from the area, the report says.
The Russian army is not ready for a new large-scale offensive operation
According to American analysts, impulsive Russian mechanized attacks are a de facto reflection of the level of Russia's current offensive potential.
And this means that the aggressor country will not be able to conduct a new separate summer offensive operation against the background of a shortage of personnel and other types of resources.
During the summer, Russian troops periodically carried out platoon and company mechanized attacks in the Lymansky, Chasovoyarsk and Avdiivsk directions in the Donetsk region, and recently intensified offensive actions to the west and southwest of Donetsk.
The ISW team also predicts that the Russian military command's habit of achieving local tactical successes at the expense of large-scale losses of personnel and equipment will become increasingly expensive.
As you know, the army of the Russian Federation is extremely active in spending limited stocks of Soviet-era weapons and equipment — these resources will simply run out in the coming years.
