The British publication The Economist admits that Russian attacks against Ukraine using thousands of attack UAVs could become a reality.
Points of attention
- Russia is intensifying production of drones and missiles, posing a significant threat to Ukraine's security.
- Ukraine needs to focus on developing an effective survival strategy that includes air defense, air attack, and deterrence measures.
- The use of drones in attacks by Russia is escalating, with the possibility of facing 'swarms' of 1,000 drones becoming a reality.
Russia will be able to attack Ukraine with a “swarm” of 1,000 drones
A year ago, 30 drone strikes attacking Ukraine in one night would have been considered extraordinary. Now Russia is using hundreds of drones, including 298 on the night of May 25 (and 355 on the night of May 26 — ed.).
Last year, the Kremlin produced about 300 Shahed drones per month; the same number is now being produced in less than three days. Ukrainian military intelligence says it has documents showing that Russia plans to increase production of the drones to 500 per day, meaning that attack swarms of 1,000 units could become a reality.
The publication quotes Ukrainian engineers who disassemble and analyze enemy strike UAVs.
They say the latest models are immune to Ukrainian electronic warfare — they no longer rely on jammable GPS, are guided by artificial intelligence, and use Ukraine’s own internet and mobile internet. Engineers said they recently discovered a note inside one of the drones they were dismantling.
The note noted that the drones are controlled using bots in Telegram, which send flight data and video to operators in real time.
According to the publication, not so long ago, drone hunting was mostly conducted by mobile teams with cheap machine guns, shoulder-fired rockets, and short-range artillery.
Now, according to air defense officer Colonel Denis Smazhny, UAVs regularly maneuver around these groups. At first they fly low to avoid detection, and then climb sharply to 2,000-2,500 m as they approach cities. Therefore, Ukraine uses helicopters, F-16 fighters and interceptor drones to combat UAVs, which have begun to show good results.
A senior official told the publication that air defenses around Kyiv still shoot down about 95% of the drones launched by Russia, but the 5% that get through cause serious damage.
The Economist writes that Ukraine still has a chance to fight drones and cruise missiles, "but the prospects against ballistic threats are bleaker."
It is noted that in the Western world, the American Patriot system has a de facto monopoly on ballistic missile defense. Ukraine currently has at least eight Patriot batteries, although at any given time some of them are damaged and undergoing repair.
The problem is that Ukraine has gone from being a priority for the Biden administration to one of many potential customers competing for limited production under Donald Trump.
Lockheed Martin, which makes the Patriot systems and their PAC-3 missiles, is ramping up production to 650 missiles a year. But that’s about 100 fewer than Russia’s projected ballistic missile production… It typically takes two PAC-3 interceptor missiles to intercept a Russian ballistic missile.
The publication notes that Ukraine may have to develop a survival strategy that combines air defense with air attack and deterrence.
