The possible victory of the Republican Donald Trump in the presidential elections in the USA threatens Ukraine with a possible rejection of the prospect of NATO membership.
Points of attention
- The possible victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential elections threatens Ukraine with a potential rejection of the prospect of NATO membership.
- Trump's election may lead to Ukraine being forced into neutrality and making territorial concessions to Russia, jeopardizing the country's security and independence.
- Security guarantees for Ukraine will be crucial in any peace negotiations amid Russian aggression, with options like NATO membership or weapon provision facing complications due to Russian influence.
- Russia demands a neutral Ukraine without strong defense capabilities, posing a significant threat to Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty.
- The potential Trump-Vance administration could agree to Putin's terms regarding Ukraine, while the Biden administration is unlikely to agree to the castration of Ukraine, emphasizing the importance of the US election results for Ukraine's future.
What threat does Trump's victory in the US elections pose to Ukraine
As the journalists of the publication note, in June, Senator JD Vance, whom Trump chose as a candidate for vice president, said about the desire to achieve a neutral status for Ukraine.
It is obvious that Russia now wants a neutered Ukraine that will not be able to properly defend itself. She still wants to conquer Ukraine. And we will not allow this - President Joe Biden's national security advisor Jake Sullivan emphasized on this occasion.
The publication notes that the Kremlin was the first to put forward the conditions for Ukraine to acquire the status of a neutral country and liquidate the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
They asked us to put our weapons in the warehouses that they will guard. And a complete veto on our foreign policy, - one of the Ukrainian high-ranking officials explained to the journalists of the publication regarding the project of the so-called peace agreement with Russia in the spring of 2022.
Can Trump, in the case of the US presidency, agree to Putin's terms regarding Ukraine
The authors of the publication note that Ukraine is well aware of the dangers of agreeing to the conditions of the aggressor country.
The biggest obstacle to peace is not Ukraine's deep reluctance to make territorial concessions — although that is real. The fact is that Russia will still demand a settlement that would involve the subjugation of 80% of the territory of Ukraine, which it does not control. That is why security guarantees for Ukraine will be central to any future peace negotiations, the material notes.
It is emphasized that granting NATO membership to Ukraine in the conditions of Russia's occupation of part of the Ukrainian territories also appears to be very difficult.
West Germany during the Cold War could be a model, but few people believe in this option.
Meanwhile, in the USA, there are also many supporters of the idea of providing Kyiv with all the necessary weapons instead of official contractual obligations regarding the defense of Ukraine.
But even this option contradicts Russia's demands for a neutered Ukraine. Putin seems to be waiting for events in America. The Biden administration will not agree to the castration of Ukraine. But the Trump-Vance administration can. As long as the results of the US elections remain in doubt, Putin has every incentive to continue the fight, the authors of the article warn.
