According to the data of the columnist Nikola Mikovich, the official Minsk is currently unable to transfer the Polonez rocket launcher systems to Russia, as it has not received consent from China.
Points of attention
- China can influence some decisions of Belarus regarding the Russian Federation.
- Belarus and China minimize cooperation with Russia because they are afraid of retaliation from the West.
- The acting commander of the Kastus Kalinovsky Regiment indicated a possible scenario of Lukashenka's exit from Putin's control.
New problems have arisen in Russia
As Mikovich noted in an article for the South China Morning Post, since "Polonaise" uses Chinese-made missiles, Lukashenko and Putin will not be able to agree on the supply until the official Beijing gives the "green light".
The expert also drew attention to the fact that the Belarusian dictator and the Chinese president are trying not to cross the red lines of the West in military cooperation between themselves and Russia.
What is important to understand, against this background, their relations in the near future will remain mainly in the economic sphere.
Mikovich also added that from Beijing's point of view, Belarus is not only an important partner, but also a critical hub for its One Belt, One Road initiative, as well as for freight trains between China and Europe.
Therefore, it is not surprising that the two countries agreed to strengthen cooperation on China-Europe freight trains by promoting infrastructure connectivity and jointly ensuring the security of the China-Europe rail transport corridor, the observer added.
When Lukashenko will make concessions to the West
In an interview for Online.UA, the acting commander of the Kastus Kalinovsky Regiment, Pavlo "Uncle" Shurmey, explained when the Belarusian dictator Oleksandr Lukashenko can get out of Putin's control.
T.v.o. Polku's commander believes that there is indeed a scenario when Lukashenko will stop obeying Putin.
Conventionally speaking, if Putin is gone tomorrow, there are forces in Russia that have been waiting for this moment and would like to sit down at the negotiating table as soon as possible. However, the negotiating table will be, not on the terms that were announced, but on the terms of Ukraine. Maybe, then Lukashenko will immediately start: "yay-yay-yay, I was forced to do all this — Putin." But if everything goes as it is now, then nothing will affect him, — he concluded.
