Ukrainian journalists have drawn attention to the fact that the world's largest prediction exchange, Polymarket, is making money on the Russian-Ukrainian war. The fact is that its users place bets not only on the fighting on the front, but also on the progress of negotiations to end the conflict.
Points of attention
- Forecasts on Polymarket serve as a gauge of public sentiment globally, influencing not only individual decisions but also potentially impacting political processes.
- While not definitive, the predictions on Polymarket are closely monitored by various parties, including members of Trump's team and investment professionals.
Polymarket makes money on war
As of today, the total stakes are over $100 million.
Users try to predict the further development of key events on and off the battlefield.
For example, the focus is currently on:
possible final battle for Pokrovsk and Myrnograd;
potential talks between Trump, Zelensky and Putin;
the likelihood of a ceasefire agreement being adopted,
total duration of the war;
Will Zelensky remain the president of Ukraine in the near future?
Journalists drew attention to the fact that Polymarket users almost do not believe in a comprehensive peace agreement by the end of 2025 — only 5% bet on it.
As for the long-term perspective, the chances are already increasing — about 23%.
There is a separate market on Trump's role in the Russian-Ukrainian war: "Will Trump end the war within 90 days?" The current probability there is less than 1%, although this market had one of the largest trading volumes — about $57 million.
What is important to understand is that forecasts on Polymarket should not be regarded as exhaustive analytics — they are just a kind of indicator of the mood of people from different parts of the world.
Despite this, in the United States, even members of Trump's team, as well as stock analysts and investment banks, monitor stock market data.
So de facto this can have an impact on the political decision-making process.
