According to Colonel Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center, he carefully analyzed the situation around Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, and also described 3 likely scenarios for the development of the situation in Ukraine over the coming months.
Points of attention
- Insights from the analysis indicate the complexities surrounding the conflict and the challenges involved in reaching a lasting resolution, considering the stakes for both parties involved.
- Understanding the perspectives outlined by Estonian intelligence provides valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of the Ukrainian situation and the potential paths forward in the ongoing conflict.
How will events on the front develop further?
Kiviselg draws attention to the fact that the Russian army focused on capturing Pokrovsk.
However, the colonel believes that even if the city falls, it will not change the overall picture of the war in Ukraine.
Against this background, he described 3 possible scenarios for the development of the situation:
First: Russia's war will be stopped by a truce, since neither side currently has the strength for a decisive breakthrough. However, if events develop in this way, it will still be only a temporary solution.
Second: Against the backdrop of a significant deterioration in socio-economic instability, Russia will not be able to continue the war, and Putin will agree to peace talks. There is also a possibility that the Kremlin will be forced to accept Kyiv's demands. Despite this, it will be very difficult for Ukraine to return to the 1991 borders.
The third: this is what Kiviselg calls the "most realistic" one — it's about Russia continuing the war as it is now. Putin simply can't afford to lose.
