According to analysts at The Economist, Estonia is one of the most likely targets for the next war of aggression launched by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. That is why the country needs to prepare for the worst-case scenario, even despite its NATO membership.
Points of attention
- The flat landscape of Estonia and the presence of Russian descendants in cities like Narva are factors that could attract Putin's interest in the region.
- Amidst a covert campaign of intimidation by the Kremlin, Estonia's need to prepare for worst-case scenarios remains crucial, despite being part of NATO.
Putin may launch an invasion of Estonia
Experts point out that Estonia is the smallest of the three Baltic countries.
For about two centuries it was under the control of the Russian Empire, and then the USSR, so Putin considers it a very real target.
With less than 300 km at its widest point from the Russian border to the Baltic Sea, Estonia is completely devoid of any strategic depth. And its completely flat landscape would facilitate intervention.
The Russian dictator will also not be able to ignore the fact that in the Estonian city of Narva, which is located right on the border with Russia, almost its entire population is descendants of immigrants from the Russian Federation.
Some [ethnic] Russians feel sympathy for their homeland, where many have relatives; some are outraged by Estonian nationalism; some are Putin apologists or simply wish there was a fraternal union like in the old days.
The publication also draws attention to the fact that in recent years the Kremlin has been conducting a covert campaign of intimidation and disorganization of Estonia.
NATO leadership has long understood what is happening and has increased its military presence in the region, but this is unlikely to scare Putin.
