According to military-political analyst Rainer Saks, the criminal army of the Russian Federation cannot wage an endless war of attrition against Ukraine, and the high losses of the Russian occupiers will very soon destabilise the situation in Russia.
What is the danger to Russia of continuing the war against Ukraine to the point of exhaustion?
Russia wants to create the impression that it is ready to wage a war of attrition, but in reality we see that it is not capable of conducting large-scale offensive operations, so the main political desire of the Russian president to take control of the entire territory of Ukraine has not been fulfilled, said Saks.
He noted that currently, the Russian occupiers are trying to capture as much territory as possible in Ukraine and prove to Western countries that further support for Ukraine is allegedly pointless.
Unfortunately, Western countries pay attention to which territories are under the control of one side or another, and look at the situation accordingly. However, it is more important to monitor what is happening at the strategic level, the analyst explains.
What will depend on the further development of the situation at the front
Saks emphasised that the current issue is not only the situation on the front line but also how the hostilities will develop further.
According to him, Ukraine has already demonstrated that it is capable of conducting large-scale attacks on strategic infrastructure on the territory of the Russian Federation, and it will matter who has the best air defense system.
If we see the ineffectiveness of Russia's air defense system, it will also call into question Russia's overall strategic deterrence potential. Therefore, Russia has actually taken a very big risk, it is not easy for it to wage this war, — emphasises Saks.
He also drew attention to the high loss rates of the Russian army.
Currently, Russia is clearly trying to avoid a new mobilization. There is talk that they may recruit large enough to make up for the losses, but these estimates are based on Russia's own sources. The question lies in the motivation, in the name of what the soldiers are fighting for. Until now, the Russian leadership somehow managed to motivate its soldiers to die at the front. But I do not believe that this will last long and that Russia will be able to continue like this indefinitely without announcing mobilisation, the expert notes.
He also noted that he does not believe the claims that the USA and Germany are trying to force Ukraine to negotiate with the Russian Federation by limiting military aid.
Perhaps in Germany and the US there are officials or politicians in the leadership of the country who think that they could try to solve this conflict in this way. But I am fully convinced that the leaders of Germany and the USA perfectly understand what such pressure would mean for Ukraine in a more long-term strategic plan. It is one thing if Western countries run out of resources to support Ukraine. But if we talk about simply trying to somehow come to an agreement with Russia and reach an agreement at the expense of Ukraine and at any price, I think the leaders of Germany and the United States will not make such a mistake, Sachs emphasises.
Regarding the situation at the front in Ukraine, the analyst noted that the occupying army of the Russian Federation is trying to advance with large forces in the Bakhmut area to regain lost positions in the fall of 2023.
Also, the Russian occupiers are trying to launch an offensive in the suburbs of Donetsk, Avdiivka and Maryinka.
Currently, Russia is carrying out small attacks in various places on the front line, but their offensive actions have not reached a level that would satisfy the Russian leadership, the analyst emphasises.
