The old world order, based on rules, agreements, and values, came to an end with the rise to power of Donald Trump. What steps can Ukraine take to “stay afloat” in this situation, analyzes Ukrainian futurologist, entrepreneur, and public figure Valeriy Pekar.
Points of attention
- Ukraine needs to adapt to the evolving global dynamics and seek support in Europe amid limited US assistance.
- The changing world order calls for new strategies and allies outside traditional alliances to navigate potential threats and conflicts.
- Ukraine should focus on improving governance, enhancing economic performance, and bolstering preparedness to ensure its survival in a world without established order.
A new world without order: how can Ukraine survive without US help?
At some point, developing countries (primarily China) began to catch up with developed ones, and the most powerful developed country, the United States, decided it was time to move from protecting the old order to destroying it. That is why the American people elected Trump, who became the spokesman for this idea, Pekar believes.
In this “new world without order,” the United States will not defend its European or Asian allies. In this world, there are now no alliances or allies, no mutual obligations, and old treaties can be renegotiated unilaterally. There are only big, strong countries that take what they want, and small, weak ones that fall victim to such policies. At least, that’s how the new American administration sees the world. They are not isolationists — they are expansionists, and we should not be surprised by the demands for Greenland, Canada, or Panama now.
Valery Pekar
Futurologist
The current American administration consists of America First and techno-oligarchs (it would be more correct to call them techno-fascists). America First dreams of destroying the world order, but strengthening the American state so that America dominates the world. Techno-oligarchs dream of destroying the world order, including the American state, so that their techno-corporations dominate the world, Pekar notes.
The new America does not want to be a global policeman and maintain order in the world. It will not defend democracy, spread education, develop institutions, etc. — it only wants your assets from you (previously only China did this).
Therefore, the security contract with Europe, “Pax Americana,” has ended. Europe as a center of power is disadvantageous to America: now it is not an ally (because there are no allies). And here America's goals coincide with the goals of Russia and China: to separate Europe from America, to break up the European Union, and to keep Europe weak, says the futurist.
America sees China as its greatest adversary. And here we have what I call the greatest geopolitical mistake of the 21st century: the belief of Americans in the possibility of tearing Russia away from China and turning it in the opposite direction — against China. In our opinion, this is impossible to do. In such a situation, the main fear of the American administration is the collapse of the Russian regime. This must not be allowed at all costs. So the moment has come when, instead of supporting Ukraine against Russia, America will start supporting Russia against Ukraine.
Pekar believes that Trump has brought Russia out of international isolation, presented it as a powerful country instead of an aggressor, which has the right to its place at the table of great powers. It is possible that sanctions will be lifted soon.
How Ukraine can survive during the changing world order:
There will be no more support for Ukraine, so we need to stop thinking that we can somehow “sell” ourselves to the new American administration. We are an annoying obstacle to their plans. We have nothing to offer them.
It is time to understand that our main ally is Europe. I wrote about this a few months ago. Europe needs Ukraine as a shield. We have the largest army on the continent. Europe needs Ukraine as a rear. As a source of financial assistance, weapons, technology, investments, political and moral support. We are doomed to be together. It is possible that as a result of American and Russian attacks on European unity, the European Union will cease to exist. But at the same time, such a potential defeat could provide an impetus for the formation of a new union — a security one, not an economic one. Ukraine will play an important role in this union, because it is impossible without us.
It is worth looking for allies outside the US and the European Union, and here it is worth mentioning Turkey first of all. Those who look at the world with a childish eye count as our enemies everyone who did not sign our documents, did not speak out clearly enough, once did something in their favor that we did not like. But this way you can end up in a world where everyone around you is considered an enemy. The world does not revolve around Ukraine, each country cares first of all about itself. And we need to care first of all about ourselves and look for allies in this matter.
Ukrainians need to understand that we have a crisis that threatens the loss of our statehood and the lives of many of us. Political elites need to immediately stop political squabbles and persecutions, poor decisions and cabinet management, and preparations for elections (which will not happen if we do not survive).
Take a subjective position. Ukraine will not agree to any conditions that do not ensure the survival of the country and its citizens. We are not obliged to be a victim. Do not be offended or react to verbal attacks, but express your interests and your position coldly and in an adult manner.
Improving management in the Armed Forces and in the rear, in the economy, military-industrial complex, energy, and other areas is becoming a matter of survival.
Every citizen of Ukraine must realize the scale of the problem and the impossibility of hiding from it. Either you are in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, or for the Armed Forces. Join the victory either by service, or with your own money and volunteering.
Get your head in order and keep it cool, don't be led astray by Russian propaganda, don't spread it. If you can't work for victory, at least don't work for defeat. The level of information attacks will increase many times in the near future.
Help those who are more difficult. Support each other. We are a networked society of free people, and this is the key to our resilience.
