According to the head of the Estonian Military Intelligence Center, Colonel Ants Kiviselg, despite the significant losses, the occupation army of the Russian Federation is able to continue the criminal war against Ukraine during 2025 and during the next few years.
Points of attention
- Estonian Military Intelligence Center predicts that the Russian occupation army can sustain the war against Ukraine until at least 2025 and beyond.
- Despite significant losses, the Russian army's resources and equipment allow for the continuation of the conflict, albeit with potential challenges such as shortages of weapons.
- The involvement of partners and allies may enhance Russia's capacity to wage war against Ukraine, although replenishing personnel and equipment becomes increasingly difficult due to ongoing losses.
- The recent dynamics indicate that Russia is not achieving its goals in Ukraine, enabling Ukrainian forces to maintain their defense and thwart major offensives.
- While the population of Russia remains a significant factor in the conflict, the strain on resources and personnel presents challenges for the sustained engagement in the war against Ukraine.
Does Russia have enough forces to continue the war against Ukraine?
Kiviselg emphasized that the occupation army of the Russian Federation is not achieving the goals of the summer offensive in Ukraine, which enables the Ukrainian military to maintain its defense during the coming months.
In particular, as an example, the head of Estonian military intelligence cited the repulse of the mass offensive of the Russian occupiers in the direction of Kurakhovo in Donetsk region by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Perhaps this week's attempt is another such desperate attempt to push in a little bit from the side and try to influence the rear of the Ukrainians in such a way that those other areas where there are active hostilities, that the Ukrainians are forced to leave there simply because their logistical routes are cut off somewhere , - suggested Kiviselg.
When there may be a shortage of weapons and military equipment in Russia
At the same time, he called to avoid optimistic estimates regarding the exhaustion of military equipment stocks of the Russian occupiers.
Unfortunately, I can't say that Russia will definitely run out of military equipment in 2025, because they also have some partners or allies that will still provide or send them resources to wage war. Whether it's North Korea or Iran, explains the head of Estonian military intelligence.
However, he noted that with Russia's current losses of equipment and personnel, it will be increasingly difficult to replenish units with fresh and reserve forces.
According to Kiviselg, only during June, the occupation army of the Russian Federation lost from 1,000 to 1,800 soldiers at the front every day.
But at the same time, the population of Russia is still so large that there is no tendency for serious changes at the front yet, - emphasized the head of Estonian intelligence.
