According to the American Institute for the Study of War, the Russian invaders do not have enough manpower and equipment to continue an intensive offensive for a long time.
Points of attention
- Russia's offensive may soon end without achieving any major operational objective.
- Ukrainian defenders use effective defense methods, which complicates the advance of Russian troops.
- The loss of the Ugledar will not affect the course of the war in a decisive way.
Russia's offensive is close to completion
As American analysts note, Russian offensive actions in the east of Ukraine began a year ago.
During this time, the Russian army managed to achieve a number of local successes on the battlefield. Despite this, there are still no operationally significant achievements.
First of all, this is due to the fact that the Defense Forces of Ukraine conduct effective defense in the depth of the front line.
Ukrainian defenders have learned to inflict maximum losses on the enemy, thus constantly holding back his advance.
Russian forces have recently achieved notable tactical successes, but have not demonstrated the ability to seize operationally important objects. ISW distinguishes between tactical successes that are important at the tactical level of war in close proximity to the battlefield and operational successes that are important at the operational level of war and affect large areas of the entire front line.
According to ISW, the Russian offensive will stall in the coming weeks, months at the most.
Will the loss of Ugledar affect the course of the war
As you know, on October 2, the Defense Forces of Ukraine carried out a controlled exit from Vugledar, in the west of the Donetsk region.
According to American analysts, this settlement will provide the Russian army with a better tactical position to continue their operational efforts aimed at advancing to the N-15 route (Donetsk — Zaporizhzhia).
The capture of Vugledar by Russian forces will not in itself radically change the operational situation in western Donetsk Oblast, and Russian forces will likely seek to achieve their operational objectives in the area during the ongoing offensive operation in western Donetsk Oblast.
The American Institute for the Study of War draws attention to the fact that Russian offensive operations, which pursue operationally important targets, have long since reached a dead end.
