According to CNN, the aggressor country Russia is already feeling the negative consequences of the war against Ukraine - the Russian economy is suffering first of all. Despite this, dictator Vladimir Putin still has the resources for 3-5 years of active hostilities.
Points of attention
- The Russian government ends wars when it faces a significant economic downturn.
- However, this is not yet a topic of discussion, as Western sanctions have proven to be too weak.
Putin can fight for a long time
Maria Snegova, a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), made a prediction on this matter:
If you look at the economy itself, it will not be the last straw that will overwhelm the enemy's cup. It is not a catastrophe. It can be controlled.
She also predicted that the economic situation in Russia gives Putin the opportunity to continue the war against Ukraine for at least another 3-5 years.
According to Snegovaya, it is currently difficult to understand what will happen next.
The expert drew attention to the fact that Western sanctions did not discourage the dictator from wanting to fight, although they should have done so.
There is only one conclusion to draw from this - they were too weak and insufficient.
"As long as Russia is producing oil and selling it at a fairly reasonable price, it has enough money to just get on with it. I'm not saying it's a really rosy picture for them, but they have enough money so that the economy is not a factor in Putin's calculations when he thinks about war," said Richard Connolly, senior fellow for international security at the British think tank RUSI.
