According to analysts, the destruction of the Wagnerites in Mali may lead to the withdrawal of a part of the occupiers of the Russian Federation from Ukraine.
Points of attention
- American analysts point to the possibility of replacing Wagner's fighters in the Sahel with the Ministry of Defense corps, which will lead to the redeployment of some military personnel from Ukraine.
- After the losses in Mali, the Russian military command may not consider replacing Wagner in the region as a priority.
- The liquidation of the Wagnerites in Mali caused outrage in Russia and may serve as a reason for changes in Putin's strategy.
Why can Putin decide to withdraw part of the occupiers from Ukraine
American analysts have noted that several well-known critical Russian military bloggers claim that the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is angry about the losses of the Wagner Group, and suggest that the Russian military leadership is using this incident as an excuse to stop the deployment of Wagner fighters in the Sahel and replace them entirely with corps of the Ministry of Defense.
Some Russian bloggers cited an unidentified source in the Putin administration as saying that Africa Corps personnel would replace Wagner's troops throughout the Sahelian Triad (Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger).
The Institute suggests that the Africa Corps likely lacks current capabilities to adequately replace the Wagner Group, particularly in Mali, as elements of the corps have recently deployed to Ukraine to participate in offensive efforts in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
A large-scale Wagner replacement after losses such as those suffered in the recent ambush would likely redeploy some Africa Corps fighters to Mali away from the front lines in Ukraine, and Russia's military command is unlikely to consider a full replacement of the Wagner in Mali or somewhere in the Sahel as a priority for now, the ISW report said
What preceded it
On July 28, it became known that the Tuareg rebels killed and wounded dozens of mercenaries of the Wagner PMC.
Mali's army reported that two of its soldiers were killed and 10 wounded in the fighting. However, about 20 militants were eliminated. In addition, according to the military, one of the army helicopters crashed during the mission in the city of Kidal, and there were no casualties.
It also became known that in the north of Mali, as a result of an armed attack by Tuareg rebels, dozens of Russian mercenaries from the "Wagner" PMC were eliminated and captured, including a propagandist and author of the popular Gray Zone channel.
