As Politico has learned, Ukraine has been able to disable a significant portion of Russia’s oil refining capacity in recent weeks. This has not only caused a domestic shortage but also brought the Kremlin’s most important strategic industry to the brink of collapse. It is likely that the latest events will force Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to agree to peace talks as early as this fall.
Points of attention
- Former British Army intelligence officer Philip Ingram views Ukraine's tactic of sabotaging Russian resources as a crucial aspect of the conflict, adapted from World War II sabotage operations to hit the Russians at the operational level.
- Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky highlights the importance of controlling the operational level in winning the overall war, emphasizing the impact of disrupting Russian capabilities to deliver men and resources to the front.
Ukraine has found a lever of influence on Putin
Against the backdrop of recent events, European officials have concluded that a combination of sanctions and targeted strikes will force the Russian dictator to sit down at the negotiating table.
According to the latest data, Ukraine has already been able to disable 15 to 20% of Russia's fuel production.
The Kremlin was even forced to declare an export ban, and queues formed at gas stations in provincial cities.
Despite the fact that Ukraine has been striking enemy refineries for over a year, their effect has now become more tangible than ever before.
Former British Army intelligence officer Philip Ingram shared his opinion on this matter.
In his opinion, this tactic is a "key part of the war," which is actively promoted by the head of the Ukrainian State Security Service, Kyrylo Budanov:
He took the old Allied leadership from World War II sabotage operations and adapted it to this conflict — to hit the Russians at the operational level, destroying their ability to deliver men and resources to the front.
Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky recently explained: Ukraine cannot win purely tactically on the front line, but whoever controls the operational level will win the war overall.
