According to experts at the Bloomberg news agency, in order to finally stop Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine, oil sanctions need to be really tightened.
Points of attention
- It is necessary to limit Russia's "shadow" fleet and impose sanctions on oil refiners that support the Putin regime.
- Diplomatic challenges, particularly from India and China, could complicate this process for the West.
- Increased sanctions will push Putin to end the war, but he will still look for ways to circumvent them.
Powerful sanctions can really stop Putin
Foreign analysts point out that initially limiting the price of Russian oil at $60 had a positive effect, as the Kremlin's revenues were indeed decreasing.
However, dictator Putin still found a way to circumvent the sanctions and used the Russian "shadow" fleet for this purpose.
We also cannot ignore the fact that China, India, and Turkey are not stopping the booming business of processing Russian oil into aviation fuel and other petroleum products, which are then legally sold to the countries of the European Union, the United States, and other regions.
Sanctioning more shadow tankers should limit the total number of them available to Vladimir Putin. But to have any real effect, Western countries will need to target buyers, including refiners that buy oil at prices above the cap and the financial institutions that facilitate such purchases.
What problems may arise?
Analysts say the main challenges are diplomatic. For example, India, which the United States considers a security ally, is already angry about the need to comply with American sanctions on Iran and other countries.
Moreover, official Beijing does not hide that it is ready to respond to Washington's restrictions.
Giving companies and banks a reasonable period of time to take action before they are subject to secondary sanctions could ease some of the friction. In the meantime, the EU should standardize enforcement measures, which vary across member states, and ensure that sufficient resources are allocated to them.
Experts point out that requiring shipowners to submit more detailed documents broken down by different services will make them more difficult to falsify.
Of course, this does not mean that Moscow will not try to circumvent the increased Western sanctions, but they will still significantly increase the cost of the war for Putin and push him to end the war.
