A civil war in the aggressor country of Russia is indeed possible, but the chances of its success — that is, the overthrow of the Putin regime — are virtually nonexistent. This is the conclusion reached by military expert, reserve colonel, and participant in peacekeeping missions, Sergei Grabsky.
Points of attention
- Historical examples like Napoleon's rise to power highlight the importance of having a solid base and support from troops, which was lacking in Prigozhin's case.
- The expert emphasizes that even in dire circumstances, the fall of the Putin regime seems improbable, emphasizing the challenges of staging a successful rebellion in Russia.
The situation in Russia is still hopeless
Serhiy Grabsky decided to recall the mutiny of the late leader of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
As soon as it began, it seemed that “Putin’s chef” could really get to Moscow and start storming the Kremlin, but the reality turned out to be different.
According to the expert, Prigozhin's example shows that any Russian general who dares to start a civil war in an aggressor country is doomed to defeat sooner or later.
Prigozhin had no system along the way, he had no resources to support him. The most classic example is Napoleon. He landed after Elbe and troops joined him, and his power grew like a snowball. No one joined Prigozhin. They could either wage guerrilla warfare in conditions of complete encirclement, or stretch their communications, but they again had no base, — Grabsky emphasized.
According to the expert, even large-scale defeats by the Russian Federation in the war against Ukraine will not cause the fall of the Putin regime.
