The American Institute for the Study of War concluded that the Russian invaders are currently focused on capturing Pokrovsk, rather than on efforts to surround the broader Ukrainian bridgehead in the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd agglomeration area.
Points of attention
- Ukrainian counterattacks on the northern flank are disrupting Russian plans, and the 51st Army is facing challenges in advancing from the northeast.
- The Russian military command's approach in the battlefield scenario is not following standard measures for completing the encirclement efficiently.
What to expect from the Russian army next?
According to American analysts, the key target for the Russian invaders is currently Pokrovsk.
This indicates that they are not focused on supporting the 51st Combined Arms Army's efforts to close the pocket from the north and northeast with an additional attack from the south.
As the ISW team notes, for the Kremlin, the potential capture of Pokrovsk would be a more resounding victory than advancing on other sections of the front.
Perhaps the Russian Federation is planning to use the information effect that will lead to the capture of the city, or hopes that the capture of Pokrovsk will facilitate subsequent efforts to close the pocket, analysts suggest.
It is impossible to ignore the fact that Ukrainian counterattacks on the northern flank of the pocket are constantly disrupting the plans of the Russian invaders.
Moreover, it is emphasized that the Russian 51st Army is facing serious problems while advancing from the northeast.
According to analysts, the Russian military command is not applying the standard measures that would be expected in such a battlefield configuration.
First of all, it is about concentrating forces and resources on completing the encirclement, which is usually the fastest and least expensive way to capture the entire territory.
