The team at investment bank JP Morgan has raised its estimate of the probability of a global recession from 40% to 60% in 2025 amid the announcement of trade tariffs imposed by US leader Donald Trump.
Points of attention
- The team at JP Morgan has raised the estimate of a global recession probability from 40% to 60% in 2025 due to the trade tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.
- JP Morgan's strategists highlight the negative impact of tax hikes, deteriorating business sentiment, and supply chain disruptions on the economy.
- Barclays and Deutsche Bank teams have also issued warnings about the American economy potentially sliding into recession if Trump's tariffs are not removed.
- JP Morgan's analytical note emphasizes that disruptive policies of the Trump administration pose the biggest risk to the global outlook, with the White House becoming less business-friendly.
- The impact of tax increases is expected to be amplified by countermeasures, deteriorating business sentiment in the US, and supply chain disruptions.
What JP Morgan warns about
Representatives of the bank published an analytical note prepared by a team of strategists led by Bruce Kasman.
It says that the disruptive policies of the Donald Trump administration are recognized as the biggest risk to the global outlook throughout the year.
In addition, it is noted that the White House's approach has become less business-friendly than previously predicted.
The impact of this tax increase is likely to be amplified by countermeasures, deteriorating business sentiment in the US, and supply chain disruptions, Bruce Kasman emphasized.
What is important to understand is that identical warnings were also issued by Barclays and Deutsche Bank teams.
According to them, the American economy could quickly slide into recession if Trump's tariffs remain in place.
Recall that official Beijing has been imposing 34 percent tariffs on all imports from the United States since April 10.
