North Korea is likely preparing to increase military assistance to Russia in the war against Ukraine, with plans to deploy additional troops, equipment, and possibly kamikaze drones.
Points of attention
- North Korea may send additional troops and kamikaze drones to Russia to support defense in the war in eastern Ukraine.
- According to preliminary estimates, the DPRK has already sent thousands of troops to assist Russian forces, which could intensify the conflict in the combat zone.
- North Korean intelligence has recorded the supply of military equipment to Russia, including missile launchers and self-propelled artillery.
- There are signs of training kamikaze drones in the DPRK, which indicates the country's desire to gain practical combat experience in international conflicts.
- Rapid and unexpected military provocations by North Korea, including the possible launch of intermediate-range ballistic missiles, could exacerbate the international crisis in eastern Ukraine.
What are North Korea's new plans for Russia?
South Korean intelligence has said that North Korea may have already sent thousands of troops to support Russian forces. Preliminary estimates put the death toll among those soldiers at around 1,100.
The JCS reports that North Korea continues to supply:
240mm rocket launchers,
170-millimeter self-propelled artillery.
There are also signs that the DPRK has begun production of kamikaze drones, which were unveiled during Kim Jong-un's inspection in November.
According to South Korea's military, North Korea is seeking to gain practical combat experience and improve its conventional weapons system. Last month, North Korean media reported the testing of kamikaze drones and called for their large-scale production due to the cost-effectiveness of the weapons.
The JCS notes that while the DPRK is currently focused on military cooperation with Russia and domestic stability ahead of the party congress, it could resort to a surprise military provocation, such as launching a medium-range ballistic missile with a hypersonic warhead.
In 2024, North Korea will likely focus on supporting Russia. This may force the country to avoid conflicts that would create a new front, the JCS concluded.
100 North Korean soldiers have already been killed and about 1,000 wounded in Kursk
As stated by South Korean parliament member Lee Seong-gwon, the high losses of the North Korean military are due to a lack of experience in using drones and ignorance of the conditions of the open terrain where they were involved in combat operations.
At least 100 people are reported dead and more than 1,000 injured, Lee Seong-gwon said.
Lee also noted that North Korea may be preparing for additional deployment of its troops in Russia.
According to the report, the losses of the North Korean military are significant, which is confirmed by official statements from representatives of the United States and Ukraine. Russia is actively using the North Korean military for its offensive operations in the Kursk region.
According to the United States and South Korea, more than 10,000 North Korean troops have been sent to help Russia. In addition, Pyongyang has provided more than 10,000 containers of weapons, including artillery shells, anti-tank missiles, mechanized howitzers and rocket launchers.
