According to the adviser to the head of the Office of the President Mykhailo Podoliak, the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region demonstrates that the Russian territories, which it uses to support the war against Ukraine, are not inviolable.
Points of attention
- Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region challenges the inviolability of Russian territories used to support the war against Ukraine.
- Analysts highlight the significance of breaking the logistics of the occupiers and causing panic in Russia through the offensive operation.
- The transfer of the war to Russian territory forces Russia to deploy more forces to localize the conflict, leading to potential social and military disruptions.
- Asymmetric actions and non-standard strategies are crucial in overturning the game with Russia and reshaping the dynamics of the conflict.
- The offensive operation in Kursk not only impacts Ukraine's border regions but also influences the combat zone in the Kharkiv region, disrupting occupiers' logistics and strategic movements.
What does the OP say about the objectives of the offensive of the Armed Forces in the Kursk region
This is a war without the rules of warfare... Russia uses its territories to locate artillery, MLRS, small air bases, and ballistic missile launchers for large-scale strikes on the civilian population of another country, Podolyak notes.
He emphasized that the authorities of the aggressor country are somehow convinced that its territories are inviolable and no one will be able to destroy the infrastructure of the criminal war unleashed by the Kremlin on the territory of Russia.
The adviser to the head of the OP added that the offensive of the Ukrainian military also demonstrates that there are only two ways to end the war launched by Russia against Ukraine.
The first: the destruction of that infrastructure of war by land operations. This is exactly what Ukraine is capable of and what is needed for the mandatory protection of the population of Ukraine in the border regions, Podolyak emphasizes.
He called the second option long-range weapon strikes on strategic objects and targets of the occupying army of the Russian Federation in the depths of Russian territory.
The second: the task of long-range strikes deep into Russia. Large-scale and regular. But this requires a lot of missiles and the final rejection of informal bans on the use of these missiles on the territory of the Russian Federation, - notes the adviser to the head of the OP.
What analysts say about the offensive of the Armed Forces in Kurshchyna
According to the co-founder and executive director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, Dmytro Zhmail, on the air of the telethon, the Ukrainian military is conducting a very important offensive operation in the Kursk region.
The fact that the war moved to the territory of Russia is very important, it is a huge reputational loss for it. It is certain, perhaps, that there will be a slowdown in rapprochement with the same Tehran, Pyongyang. Because it shows the weakness of the regime, the analyst emphasizes.
He noted that the Russian occupiers will have to reckon with the fact of the war being transferred to their territory and transfer reserves from the directions of the front in Ukraine.
Of course, we would like them to start overturning their main group "Center", which is storming the Pokrovsky direction. But the Russians will try not to do this until the last, Zhmailo is convinced.
He added that according to the available information, the Russian occupiers are transferring reserves from the occupied territories in the south of Ukraine to the Kursk region.
In particular, we are talking about the 810th brigade of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation, which was already transferred to Kurshchyna.
The analyst also noted that the Russian occupiers are trying to form new units from the Sevier group, which was defeated by the Ukrainian military in the Kursk region, with the task of stopping and limiting the deployment of the Ukrainian military in the Kursk region.
In addition, as the analyst notes, the leadership of the aggressor country is also trying to form ground defense units and is even mobilizing employees of large industrial enterprises for this purpose.
The social disturbance that already exists in the Russian Federation, the violation of military logistics is what we need to turn the situation around. And in the end, I hope that we will achieve the fact that at least this summer offensive company of the Russians will be curtailed, Zhmailo is convinced.
He emphasized that it is very important that we do not fight the Russians head-on, but use asymmetric actions, non-standard steps and moves.
This is a very important operation. This is an asymmetric response to Russia's war. We overturned the game the Russians were playing with us, overturned their chessboard. They pulled up reserves, fielded more numerical forces and pressed us on the eastern flank, somewhere moving an average of 400 meters a day. We, of course, could throw these reserves of ours into strengthening the eastern direction, but the Russians would still put up more men, bigger reserves, more ammunition. And this is an asymmetric response - we are moving the war to their territory, - explains the analyst.
He noted that panic had already begun in Russia against the background of the offensive of the Armed Forces in Kurshchyna.
Russia is collapsing inside very quickly. And this was shown by Prigozhin's rebellion. A small force of 5,000 to 20,000 soldiers then put the whole of Russia on notice - the leadership began to flee from Moscow, and they began to dig trenches. That is, the state apparatus immediately begins to pour into them. Therefore, this is a very important operation (about the Kursk operation) and its consequences will be new and new, Zhmailo emphasized.
According to the analyst, thanks to the actions in the Kursk region, there has already been some relief in the combat zone in the Kharkiv region, because the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region has broken the logistics of the occupiers in that direction.
From certain areas in Ukraine, the Russians are transferring reserves to their territory.
Our task now is to cover the territory with our actions as much as possible, so that the Russians are forced to bring more numerous forces here to localize this breakthrough, - Zhmailo explains.
Speaking about how events will develop further, he said that there may be different scenarios, but it is difficult to talk about the quality of real and one hundred percent forecasts now.
It is possible that we will establish control and the front line will move statically across the territory of the Russian Federation. If the Russians transfer sufficient forces and it can be said that the offensive is over, then perhaps we will withdraw. Perhaps there will be stronger positions before the negotiations and subsequent processes. But now it is very difficult to predict. The situation is so dynamic and we see how carefully the official bodies comment on the operation, - the analyst suggests.
