Russians finally lose interest in quick death in war.
Points of attention
- Russians are losing interest in war and their willingness to die for Putin, which makes it difficult to mobilize in the country.
- Financial incentives are a key factor in attracting new fighters, but do not guarantee occupiers success in war.
- Russian military bloggers and soldiers have been posting detailed videos about the horrific conditions at the front, which has undermined public enthusiasm for the war.
- The Institute for the Study of War estimated that replenishment of the occupying army with recruits would not allow the Russian Federation to conduct large-scale offensive operations in the summer in several directions.
- There is an assumption that the duration of the war and the possible major defeat of Russia may lead to the refusal of the Russians to fight and to changes in the policy of mobilization in the country.
It is increasingly difficult for Putin to find Russians ready to die for him in Ukraine
Military bloggers and ordinary soldiers increasingly publish detailed videos of the horrific conditions at the front. Personnel changes in the Russian MoD also hint at an official recognition that something is not going precisely as Kremlin propaganda claims.
A billboard recently appearing in St. Petersburg is one of the most convincing evidence of Russian dissatisfaction with the war. "Hero City has its heroes," the ad says. People are offered to join the army and receive a colossal payment of 1.3 million rubles, equivalent to an average Russian's annual salary.
But what is particularly important in this proposal is that the billboard appeared in the second city of Russia, which, like Moscow, is mostly devoid of coffins and prostheses, the publication analyses.
The horrors of the war are overwhelmingly concentrated in the poor provinces of Russia, where 1.3 million rubles is a salary for several years. It shows that the Kremlin is in desperate need of recruits.
Even more critical is that Russians were offered 200,000 rubles for registration two years ago. The price of a recruit has increased by 650 per cent! Even adjusted for inflation, this is a vast increase, indicating that the demand for soldiers and the supply is low.
In other words, Russians increasingly do not want to serve. With more than 535,000 dead and wounded and more than 1,000 daily casualties, it's time for Russians to realize that the regime is using them as cannon fodder, writes The Hill.
According to the publication, such a mood change promises terrible news for the regime and Putin himself. Their working assumption was that Russians love punishment, that they will go unthinkingly to their death, like sheep to the slaughter. Enthusiasm for the war was high several months after the invasion. Still, it waned after the humiliating Russian withdrawal from Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions a few months later.
Since mid-2023, the front has barely moved in any direction, and Russian casualties have almost doubled from about 600-800 per day to at least 1,200-1,400. Putin, as the building says, is happy to trade Russian lives for a few square miles of Ukrainian land. However, Russians seem to be finally waking up and voicing their disapproval of the senseless death.
Putin and his comrades found themselves in a hopeless situation. If they stop mobilizing, they will not be able to defeat Ukraine. But if they forcibly mobilize soldiers, they will increase the incentives for desertion.
We don't know when the tipping point for rational flight will come, but we can make two assumptions, the publication writes.
First, the longer the war lasts, the more likely the Russians will refuse to fight. As the flow of volunteers dries up and forced mobilization proves counterproductive, conditions will become unbearable for the overworked soldiers at the front. Time is not on Putin's side.
And secondly, if Russia suffers a significant defeat, the soldiers will most likely save their skins by abandoning the ship. Such a defeat can be anything: from a Ukrainian march to Moscow (improbable) to another violent withdrawal of troops from part of the occupied territory (quite likely). Losing all or part of Crimea would be particularly demoralizing.
The moral for Ukraine and its allies is simple: hang on. Russians who are expected to die refuse to die, The Hill summarizes.
Mobilisation in Russia
According to the Financial Times, a new wave of "partial mobilisation" may be announced in Russia by the end of 2024—the beginning of 2025.
Despite heavy losses, the army of occupation is now 15% larger than when full-scale war began. Financial incentives that raised military salaries to unprecedented levels played the biggest role in persuading Russians to go to war.
The Institute for the Study of War estimated that replenishing the occupying army with recruits would not allow the Russian Federation to conduct large-scale offensive operations in the summer in several directions. New reserves would not be able to act as penetration forces of the first or second echelons.
