Russian dictator Vladimir Putin may try to use the Union State collective security treaty to drag Belarus into the war and use Belarusian human resources and training facilities for the needs of the Russian army.
Points of attention
- The common legal status between Belarus and Russia within the Union State could be used to argue for Belarusian citizens' participation in the Russian military under uniform regulations.
- The reactions of Belarusian dictator Lukashenko to Putin's potential moves to recruit Belarusians into the Russian armed forces remain uncertain, posing challenges for the geopolitical situation in the region.
Putin has the legal basis to drag Belarus into war
This warning was voiced by American analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to their data, the head of the Kremlin may consider the population of Belarus as a potential source of replenishment of Russian troops on the Ukrainian front.
In this way, he will be able to compensate for the systemic shortage of personnel that the Russian army has been experiencing since May 2022.
Analysts point out that Putin may be trying to recruit Belarusian citizens into the Russian armed forces, given that Belarusians and Russians exist within the Union State.
In fact, this means that they have a common legal status and formally enjoy equal rights.
In this logic, Moscow could argue that Belarusians also have corresponding civic responsibilities within this association.
In the future, Russian officials may even insist on Belarusian citizens serving in the Russian army or in joint military structures of the Union State under uniform rules.
