According to Estonian intelligence, Russia has increased ammunition production so much that this de facto indicates that dictator Vladimir Putin is actively preparing for the next war outside Ukraine.
Points of attention
- The significant reliance on ammunition imports from Iran and North Korea underscores the complexities and risks of Russia's aggressive foreign policy tactics.
- The international community must closely monitor and address the alarming developments in Russia's military preparations to prevent further destabilization and conflict.
Putin has no intention of ending the war
Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service has learned that factories in Russia managed to produce more than 7 million shells, mortar shells, and missiles last year, compared to 4.5 million in 2024.
The international community cannot ignore the fact that since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, ammunition production in the Russian Federation has increased 17 times.
Putin managed to achieve this through the construction of new production facilities.
It is also important to understand that Russia is actively purchasing ammunition. Over the past few years, it has received 5-7 million shells from Iran and North Korea.
Estonian intelligence draws attention to the fact that ammunition from the DPRK accounted for 50% of all shells fired by Russia at Ukraine in the second half of 2025.
For the Kremlin, maintaining these stocks is almost certainly a critical element in planning for potential future conflicts... Russia is setting itself long-term operational goals in the war against Ukraine. This confirms that the recent revival of rhetoric about peace talks is just a tactic to buy time, Estonian intelligence officials warn.
