The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria will not have a direct impact on the war in Ukraine. However, for the Kremlin, this means the loss of an important zone of influence.
Points of attention
- The fall of the Assad regime in Syria led to the loss of Russia's key sphere of influence in the Middle East.
- Russia's role in Africa will also weaken due to this event.
- The loss of Syria will not significantly affect the war in Ukraine, but it may affect the economic capabilities of the Kremlin for a long war in the future.
- Russia is trying to shift the blame for the loss of Syria to Iran.
- The situation in Syria will not change their capabilities in the war against Ukraine, but it may play a role in the future.
Russia's role in Africa will weaken
As Andrii Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the NSDC, reported, Russia has lost a key area of influence in the Middle East, including logistical bases.
In his opinion, the main reason for Russia's failure in Syria was the destruction of the "Wagner" PMC together with its excavator Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Prigozhin spent years building a system of Russian influence in the Middle East and Africa. Syria was a key point through the bases of the Russian Federation and the exit of the fleet to the Mediterranean Sea, Kovalenko explained.
Kovalenko believes that Russia's role in Africa will also weaken. He added that the Kremlin is trying to shift the blame for the loss of Syria to Iran.
Regarding the impact of these events on the war in Ukraine, the head of the CPD noted that this impact is minimal.
Russia is already working at the limit of its economic capabilities, planning a protracted war in 2025. However, without unpopular mobilization, they will not be able to sustain this war. The situation in Syria in no way changes their capabilities in the war against Ukraine, Kovalenko stressed.
The fall of the Assad regime in Syria - what is known
On December 8, the regime of Bashar al-Assad, who ruled the country for more than 20 years, was officially overthrown in Syria. Syrian rebels entered Damascus, seized the buildings of the state media and state institutions.
Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali said he remains in the country and is ready to facilitate the transfer of powers to an "interim government" that may include opposition figures.
In his video message, he said that he would go to his office the next morning to continue his duties. The politician emphasized that the government is open to dialogue with the opposition and is ready to transfer the functions of the transitional government to it.
Instead, according to Western media reports, dictator Assad flew out of Damascus on a Russian plane. It is assumed that he may have died in a plane crash. The Russian Foreign Ministry said Bashar al-Assad had resigned as president of Syria and left the country, saying he had given instructions for a peaceful transfer of power.
Meanwhile, Israel moved troops into a buffer zone on the border with Syria. The Israeli army also struck air bases in southern Syria.
