European intelligence agencies are pessimistic about the chances of reaching an agreement to end the war in Ukraine this year, despite US President Donald Trump's statements that such a prospect is "quite close."
Points of attention
- European intelligence services are doubtful about the possibility of a peace agreement in Ukraine this year, as Russia seeks to prolong the war for its strategic goals.
- Russia's strategy includes removing President Zelensky and transforming Ukraine into a 'neutral' buffer state for Western interests.
European intelligence agencies are pessimistic about the end of Russia's war against Ukraine
This is reported by Reuters, which recently spoke with the heads of five European intelligence services. The article states that the intelligence officers, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Russia does not want a quick end to the war.
Moscow is using the talks with the United States to push for sanctions relief and business deals, four of them said. One intelligence official called the peace talks, the latest round of which took place in Geneva this week, "negotiation theater."
The publication noted that these statements "point to a striking gulf in views between European capitals and the White House, which, according to Ukraine, wants to conclude a peace agreement by June."
Russia is not seeking a peace agreement. It is seeking its strategic goals, which have not changed, said one European intelligence official, who said its goals include removing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and turning Ukraine into a "neutral" buffer for the West.
According to the second intelligence chief, the main problem is that Russia does not want or need a quick peace, and its economy "is not on the verge of collapse."
Explaining the territorial issues that Ukraine and Russia cannot agree on, the second intelligence chief said that if Russia gets the rest of the Donetsk region, it may be satisfied territorially, but it will not achieve its goal of "overthrowing the pro-Western Zelenskyy government."
A third intelligence chief said there was a false belief that if Ukraine cedes Donetsk Oblast, it would quickly lead to a peace agreement. He said that if that happens, Russia would then make the following demands.
According to two officials, Moscow is trying to divide the US-brokered talks into two distinct tracks: one focused on the war and the other on bilateral agreements with the States that would include easing sanctions on Russia.
The publication recalled that Zelensky, citing intelligence, stated that American and Russian representatives were discussing a bilateral cooperation agreement worth up to $12 trillion, proposed by Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev.
One European intelligence official said the offer was designed to appeal to both Trump and Russian oligarchs who have not benefited from the war because of sanctions but whose loyalty to Russian President Vladimir Putin needs to be maintained as the Russian economy faces increasing difficulties.
However, the official stressed that Russia is ultimately a "resilient society" capable of withstanding hardship. However, a third official said that Russia would face "very high" financial risks as early as the second half of 2026.
