Russia is forming reserves to support ongoing military operations in Ukraine, but these units will not be able to carry out large-scale offensives.
Russia is not forming reserves for a new offensive
The ISW reported that the Russian military has begun recruiting personnel for units of the recently recreated Leningrad Military District (LMD).
The Ministry of Defence of Great Britain reported that the 44th Army Corps of the LMD began recruiting in Luza, Leningrad Region.
The agency recalled that earlier the Kremlin involved newly created units to carry out operations in Ukraine. They added that Russia's need to continue operations in Ukraine hinders its broader efforts to form regular Armed Forces. This is in line with the Institute for the Study of War's longstanding assessment of current Russian military reforms.
According to ISW, Russia is forming reserves capable of supporting current operations in Ukraine. However, such reserves are unlikely to function as a cohesive large-scale offensive in 2024, the report says.
What is known about the probability of a new offensive of the Russian army in Ukraine
Retired British Army Colonel Glen Grant predicted that in October or November of this year, the occupation army of the Russian Federation may launch a new offensive in Ukraine.
Grant noted that the Russian occupiers currently lacked enough equipment, ammunition, or human resources to achieve a breakthrough in the Ukrainian military's defence line.
A former British soldier warned that Ukraine should use the time available to overcome political problems and strengthen its defences.
I think that Russia is currently acting within its capabilities. I don't believe a tsunami-like event is imminent, although I could be wrong. There is no intelligence to indicate that Russia is amassing significant resources for a major offensive, such as the use of nuclear weapons, Grant emphasized.
