According to Defense Express military analyst Ivan Kyrychevskyi, the occupation army of the Russian Federation may try to launch an offensive in the Sumy region, but will not achieve any significant success.
Is there a threat of the Russian offensive in the Sumy region?
As for the current scenarios in Sumy region, we will have to start from the first words of the DIU chief Budanov, who outlined the scenario that the Russians will probably try to attack in Kharkiv region for another 3-4 days in order to stretch the defense line of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and then the enemy will try to attack Sumy region. But we can make a correction to the fact that, if the Russians really go to attack in Sumy region, the fighting will be on a smaller scale because the Russians have concentrated a group of about 10,000 bayonets there, the analyst explains.
Kyrychevskyi also emphasised that the Russian Federation's occupation army involved about 30,000 invaders in the offensive in the Kharkiv region.
However, this was not enough even to break through to Vovchansk.
Based on the reports of the General Staff of Ukraine that separate groups of Russians tried to infiltrate the outskirts of Vovchansk, but were knocked out, it is obvious that a hypothetical Russian operation in Sumy region will not have a significant scale, the analyst concludes.
He emphasised that, at present, everything will depend not even on the number of enemy forces but on how much the front line will increase.
That is, we will have to distribute the same amount of ammunition, equipment and reserves as before, the analyst explains.
How Russia tried to intimidate Ukrainians by attacking the Kharkiv region
Petro Chernyk, a military analyst and reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in his comments to Channel 24 journalists, noted that Kremlin propaganda began actively scaring Ukrainians with a terrible crisis and stalemate after the offensive of the Russian occupation army in the border areas of Kharkiv.
Chernyk emphasised that the Russian occupiers partially managed to get their way.
At the same time, the analyst urged Ukrainians to calm down because, in 2022, the situation in the Kharkiv region was much worse, and columns of Russian invaders tried to break through to Kharkiv.
The Russians have achieved a surge in information and psychological operations to divert attention from the Eastern bridgehead.
If you look into the Russian public, you can see that no one talks about Chasiv Yar anymore.
Russia is already about to win a "huge victory" in Kharkiv; tomorrow, it will enter the Dnipro the day after tomorrow—in Odesa, and even Kyiv will be stored.
Panic, especially on May 12-13, was at a very high level. It is a good thing that they did not provoke the humanitarian crisis that they were trying to achieve. In my opinion, their main task was to make Kharkiv "boil" in terms of refugees. The enemy pressed, presses and will press. We know that war is existential. Nothing has changed there and will not change, the analyst explains.
According to him, the occupying army of the Russian Federation is still unable to reach the administrative borders in Donetsk region and Luhansk region, and they decided to change their focus and open a new front in Kharkiv region.
They did not stretch any of our troops. We did not withdraw the troops from any location and did not move them to Kharkiv region. We introduced reserves — this is a very important detail. Reserves, according to operational indicators, depending on the level — company, division or corps — can make up from 15 to 30% of the number of troops, — Chernyk emphasised.
In total, the defence consists of 15 kilometers. The enemy does not have a breakthrough at such a distance. For now, the occupiers have stopped in the operational lane, i.e. a maximum of seven kilometers from the border.
According to Chernyk, the occupying army of the Russian Federation may start operating in the Sumy region in a similar way.
According to him, the enemy can also use 5,000 to 7,000 personnel since the total number of the "Sever" group is about 40,000 Russian soldiers.
