Ukrainian intelligence records the mass opening of criminal cases in Russia, due to the fact that the occupiers want to "write off" military service.
Points of attention
- According to the GUR, Russians are refusing to serve in the army en masse, causing problems with personnel and an increase in criminal proceedings for bribery.
- The level of corruption in the Russian army is increasing, which indicates the growing demoralization of the occupying forces and the trend of desertion from the army, which threatens Moscow.
- Ukrainian intelligence confirms Russia's problems with mobilizing new contractors for the war against Ukraine due to serious losses and problems recruiting new fighters.
Russians are increasingly refusing to serve in the army
According to the HUR, staffing problems are worsening in Russia. In particular, the number of those willing to leave the service and avoid death in the war waged against Ukraine is growing.
This is evidenced by the sharp outbreak of registered criminal proceedings on the facts of bribery in the Russian army.
For example, in the southern military district of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, in 5 months of 2024, the number of open criminal cases for illegal dismissal from service due to health conditions and the granting of illegal vacations tripled.
Almost half of such proceedings are being investigated against the occupiers of the 8th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Armed Forces. Another 36% belongs to the 58th combined army of the aggressor state, the commander of which was arrested in the spring of this year on suspicion of corruption.
More than 100 proceedings opened against officials of the military units of the southern military district of the Russian Armed Forces relate to bribery for granting leave from the combat zone.
Including:
38 cases — concerning servicemen of the 102nd motorized rifle regiment (conducting combat operations in the Chasovoy Yar area);
35 cases — regarding the 71st motorized rifle regiment (located on the border with the Sumy region);
33 cases are related to the 49th brigade of the 49th army.
As part of another 43 proceedings, the facts of receiving bribes for recognizing the Russian occupiers as limited fit are being investigated.
Ukrainian intelligence emphasizes that the level of corruption in the Russian army has always been high, but previously no attention was paid to such cases of bribery.
Fixation of the relevant episodes in the form of criminal cases may indicate the growing level of demoralization of the personnel of the occupying forces and the threatening tendency for Moscow to escape from the Russian army by any means.
What is known about Russia's problems with mobilizing fresh "cannon fodder" for the war against Ukraine
According to Yusov, Ukrainian military intelligence is assessing the ability of the occupation army of the Russian Federation to carry out an offensive and the timing of its failure.
Security and defense forces work in coordination, and of course, data sharing also takes place. It is clear that such assessments are made on the basis of, in particular, large losses in manpower, equipment, forces and means of the enemy. Yes, at the moment they can replenish these losses, but there are already serious, significant problems with the recruitment of new contractors. And the aggressor state invents new and new incentives at various levels in order to attract new cannon fodder, but this machine is starting to fail, - emphasized the representative of GUR.
Yusov added that these data are the basis of forecasts, which were recently discussed by the commander of the National Guard of Ukraine Oleksandr Pivnenko.
We can already state that there are problems with the manpower recruitment plan. And this, one way or another, will have an impact on the situation at the front, - explains the intelligence representative.
According to him, by the end of this year, the military leadership of the criminal army of the Russian Federation plans to increase the contingent participating in the war against Ukraine from 520,000 to 620,000.
Actually, these are the numbers that were mentioned before. And these are the plans of the enemy. It should be noted that we are talking about the entire group. That is, it is not only a combat component. These are actually the forces and security, these are the forces that are responsible for the so-called "order" in the occupied territories, and in fact - for repression. Because it is not only a combat component. Yes, they are trying to move according to this plan. A significant part is aimed at replenishing those losses caused by the Ukrainian Security and Defense Forces, destroying the enemy, Yusov emphasized.
