Moscow's public debt will reach a record high of almost 30% of total gross domestic product (GDP) in 2031. This is stated in an analytical note from the International Monetary Fund.
Points of attention
- Russia's public debt is expected to reach a record high of 29.1% of total GDP by 2031, as per IMF projections.
- The Russian economy is facing rapid deterioration, with annual increases predicted in public debt reaching up to 2% in the next five years.
The Russian economy is rapidly deteriorating
According to the forecast, this year the aggressor country's public debt will amount to 19.1% of GDP. However, in the next five years it will grow annually by an average of 2%:
in 2027 it will be 21.2% of GDP,
in 2028 — 23.6% of GDP,
in 2029 — 25.4% of GDP,
in 2030 — 27.2% of GDP.
Finally, the indicator will reach 29.1% of GDP in 2031.
At the same time, a previous IMF report from October last year, before US President Trump launched the war in Iran, predicted even faster negative growth for the Kremlin.
Thus, Russia's public debt was supposed to cross the 30.7% of GDP mark in 2029. The interim figures were as follows: 2026 — 24.8% of GDP, 2027 — 26.6% of GDP, 2028 — 28.7% of GDP.
According to the Accounting Chamber of the Russian Federation, over the past year, Moscow's state debt increased by 21% to 35.1 trillion rubles, or $466.8 billion.
The growth in debt was driven solely by domestic borrowing: the volume of domestic debt increased by 29.1% to 30.7 trillion rubles, or $408.3 billion. In total, the Kremlin's domestic borrowing accounted for 87.5% of the Russian Federation's total public debt.
Thanks to the successful work of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on enemy ports and refineries, oil exports from Russia fell to their lowest level since August. However, the rise in energy prices due to Trump's war allowed oil exports to reach a new maximum in monetary terms since June 2022. In particular, Bloomberg wrote that in this way Russia sells less and less oil, but earns more from it.
At the same time, due to the war in the Middle East, Moscow was able to profit not only from higher oil prices, but also from some metals — for example, aluminum. In addition, a fifth of the world's trade in fertilizers, which have also become more expensive, also falls on Russia.
