Andreas Umland, an expert at the Swedish Institute of International Relations, believes that Ukraine is trying to gain leverage for future negotiations with Russia after the lightning-fast border breach operation in the Kursk region.
Points of attention
- The breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kurshchyna has the potential to hasten the end of the war between Ukraine and Russia, providing Ukraine with significant leverage in negotiations.
- The successful operation demonstrates Ukraine's ability to make unexpected breakthroughs and could lead to a compromise, including the exchange of occupied territories, reducing tensions in the region.
- The deployment of American weapons and US support can play a crucial role in helping Ukraine achieve success in Kurshchyna and strengthen its position in negotiations with Russia.
- The Kurshchyna offensive challenges the perception that Putin holds all the cards in the conflict, indicating Ukraine's ability to inflict pain on Russia and gain leverage in ceasefire negotiations.
- The operation in Kurshchyna may pave the way for potential talks between Ukraine and Russia, potentially changing the dynamics of the conflict and accelerating the negotiation process.
The operation of the Armed Forces in Kurshchyna can hasten the end of the war
The invasion of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation into the territory of Russia may lead to a quick end to the Russian Federation's war against Ukraine.
According to Umland, the last four days have dramatically changed the Russian-Ukrainian war. The operation of Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region quickly turned into the largest territorial advance since the successful counteroffensive in Kharkiv and Kherson in the fall of 2022.
It is currently unclear whether the Russians were able to stop the advance of the ZSU. However, more and more footage of captured Russians and destroyed convoys of Russian vehicles is appearing online. In some places, the situation is very similar to the first chaotic days of the "great war".
The operation demonstrates Ukraine's ability to surprise and exploit sudden breakthroughs, something Russia has consistently failed to do since the start of the war.
In addition, this is the first case of foreign troops invading the Russian Federation since World War II. Therefore, Ukraine demonstrates to the Russians that the war is returning to their territory.
It seems that the West supports this operation. The White House and the EU stated that the decision to conduct the operation should be made by Ukraine itself. Earlier, the allies declared that an attack on the Russian Federation could become a "red line", the beginning of the Third World War and nuclear Armageddon. But the Ukrainians did it.
Umland noted that the effect and purpose of the Kursk operation could be to erase the arguments about the "red line".
The offensive in the Kursk region is developing, and Kyiv is currently maintaining informational silence. Ukraine's strategic goals were discussed early. One widely held assumption is that this could bring the war to a quick end.
The operation of the Armed Forces makes it clear to the dictator Vladimir Putin that Ukraine retains a significant potential to inflict pain on Russia. If Ukrainian forces are able to retain and maintain control over Russian territory, this could increase Ukraine's influence in any possible negotiations to end the war. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are withdrawing reserves and entrenching themselves on the occupied borders.
In addition, Umland said that Ukraine's lightning breakthrough undermines the widespread idea that Putin holds all the cards and can dictate the terms of the ceasefire. Kyiv makes it clear that gaining leverage in negotiations is one of the goals of the offensive.
What is the aim and purpose of the breakthrough of the Armed Forces in Kurshchyna
The likely purpose of the operation is consistent with President Zelenskyi's recent statements that Kyiv is ready for negotiations.
It is not necessary for us to return all territories by military means. I think that this can be achieved with the help of diplomacy.
The occupied territory of the Russian Federation can be exchanged for the occupied territory of Ukraine.
Perhaps the idea is for both states to retreat within their recognized borders? - wrote the former Prime Minister of Sweden Karl Bildt in Kh.
Kyiv seems to be preparing the ground for potential negotiations, seeking to strengthen its position and publicly declaring its readiness.
Perhaps Zelensky decided to gamble in order to change and accelerate the dynamics of the conflict, including gaining more leverage if the negotiations start earlier than expected, writes the analyst.
How the US can help Ukraine develop the success of the Kurshchyna offensive
Journalists of The Washington Post draw attention to the fact that the White House did not complain about the use of American weapons by the Ukrainian military during the offensive in the Kursk region.
At the same time, the USA still has not officially given Ukraine permission to use long-range ATACMS missiles against objects and targets on the territory of Russia.
Such strikes, perhaps backed up by strikes from Ukraine's recently acquired F-16s, could thwart any Russian counterattack. If Ukraine is not granted permission from Washington, its troops will be forced to retreat earlier than necessary, the publication emphasizes.
